I concluded the previous update saying that it would be critical to see whether or not bitcoin would break through the monthly Kama moving average (51.000$ at that time).
I waited a bit to see the extent of the positive reaction from the value this weekly average had that day, again 51k usd. Exactly like in the previous update bitcoin is again, but this time on the daily chart, on a key point. The price level around 59-60 thousand usd were bitcoin failed to exceed between March 18 and 20 is this new key point and a failure to go above it would probably lead to higher risk to see this thing going below my weekly average.
Let’s be clear, we need to start seeing on the daily chart a sequence of rising highs and lows otherwise there is always an increasing risk that the bearish scenario hypothesized in the previous update comes true.
About this weekly average I note that since this strong trend started bitcoin has never spent too much time below it as you can see in the below chart.
What will happen? Bitcoin is probably going to continue to go up at a lower rate because as I’ve said many times since January the weekly kama efficiency ratio has to go down and it’s going down. Today we are at 0.70 from a high of 0.85 that bitcoin reached on the first Top of January and on the second one of February, I remind everyone that this value represents the ratio between volatility and directionality and varies from zero to one. You can see by yourself that after February we are going up with less intensity.
The strategy about my ongoing long term trade does not change, I continue to leave the trailing profit at $29,000.
It will be interesting for me to see if in the next few days bitcoin can make a new high above $60k.
Take care and see you at the next update.