XBTUSD crashed below a very short term VWAP, the last support is at 855 usd and at 841 usd there is also the 2 months VWAP, i expect some buyer to show up there.
Below the 850$ price zone there is 720$ in case of an epic fall fueled by margin call selling.
XBTUSD remains pointed higher, but may see short-term weakness down to the 7 days VWAP at 1030$ (1040$ for kraken and 1000$ for btce exchange).
Waiting for a dip to support before looking for fresh longs; risks of momentum slowing is on the rise without retracement if price moves below the short term VWAP.
RSI is close to oversold and i think that in the next hours there should be an intraday bottom, good opportunity to buy if market stays above VWAP.
XBT / USD weekly price range forecast $760-$800 | Even this week the support/resistance levels remain the same, the main resistance is the second dev. line above the VWAP at $800 while the support is still valid the VWAP at $720 approximately but with these levels of low volatility i think it will be support the first dev.line above the VWAP at $760. This week we’ll see if there will be enough energy to break the $800 and reach the next resistance at $840 by year-end.
The average of the daily RSI oscillator is in overbought territory. The RSI on the weekly chart is slighty overbought just above the threshold of 70, despite being overbought for some continuous weeks i think that a maximum on the weekly chart has not yet been done.
In case of extreme drop the support is the price area between 495 and 590 US.
Italian version here at bitchanger.com
XBT / USD weekly price range is $720-$800 | Nothing new also for this week with the main resistance ($ 800) at the second deviation line above the VWAP while the support is the VWAP at about $ 720. As long as the bitcoin will maintain this upward tendency with reduced volatility the levels of support and resistance will not change much, going hand in hand with the advance of the price.
The average daily RSI oscillator is entering the overbought zone. The RSI on the weekly chart is in overbought and above the threshold of 70; despite being overbought for some weeks I think that a maximum on the weekly chart has not yet been done.
In case of extreme drop the support is the price area between 485 and $ 575 US.
Let’see now the daily chart template I use with Metatrader 4. As you can see the price levels are similar to VWAP and its deviation lines. At the moment the price is consolidating above the median line of the price regression channel preparing for a move up to $810 in accordance with the $800 resistance provided by the second deflection line of the VWAP. The area around 720-730 dollars will provide support in case of correction.
Italian version here at bitchanger.
XBT / USD weekly price range of $700-$800 | For this week the main resistance is the second price deviation line above the VWAP at $800 while the support I believe it is valid the VWAP itself at about $ 700. The average daily RSI oscillator is not giving significant indications, it continues to remain above the mid point of 50 confirming the moderate bullish tendency. The RSI on the weekly chart is overbought but is just above the threshold of 70, it may still report the formation of a Top not having the bitcoin still broke decisively the $790 resistance on the weekly chart.
In cases of extreme drop support is the price zone between $485 and $570.
Italian version here at bitchanger.
XBT / USD weekly price range of $690-$785 | ALMA daily moving average is slightly bearish, for this week the main resistance is the second price deviation line above the VWAP at $785 while the support I believe it is valid the VWAP itself at about $ 690.
The average daily RSI oscillator is not giving significant indications, it continues to remain above the mid point of 50. The RSI on the weekly chart is overbought but is just above the threshold of 70, it may still report the formation of a Top not having the bitcoin still broke decisively the $750 resistance.
In cases of extreme drop support is the price zone between $465 and $550.
Italian version here at bitchanger.
XBTUSD cross has finally break through the first resistance above the mid-line of the price channel now at $640, same price level of the 2 month VWAP. In the attached chart I highlighted the price zone where I expect the next top will fall.
I believe that the next top will fall in this price zone, precisely between 770 and 910 US dollars; because of the long-term trend still up i think that bitcoin could make a maximum higher than the previous one of June, it is not excluded a Top around $ 900 as shown in the weekly chart.
It exists the possibility that i’m wrong if the dominant timeframe isn’t the weekly.
So what? Well we can switch to another timeframe for example the monthly chart. Here the price channel is much wider then the weekly chart, midpoint is at around $500 usd and the two positive deviation lines are at 870 and 1500 usd. Again we have a resistance similar to the weekly chart, around 870-900.
In order to prove that my weekly scenaro is wrong XBTUSD have to break above 900 usd with strong volume, as you know a High-Volume Breakout signal a move higher possibly to $1000 and beyond.
This is a weekly chart since the bottom of March, 2015; the underlying weekly tendency is still up since then.
Inside this long term up channel there are secondary tendencies or cycles clearly visibile and highlighted by the alma moving average.
Last up cycle ended on the top just outside the high volatility zone in June 2016. After 3 months we are still in a secondary down cycle inside a big up cycle. As i’ve told you in previous updates the maximum extension of this down cycle is at $420 as indicated in the above chart, i doubt we will see weakness below this important level.
At the moment the price is exactly at the middle point of the price regression channel and it’s very hard to say which direction it’ll take, in any case if there will be a new crash down to $420 i’ll further increase my long term position; at the same time if XBTUSD start to stay consistently below $420 i’ve to conclude that the long term up cycle is over and a bear market is ahead.
As i’ve said many times in the past years i don’t believe in a prolonged bear market because bitcoin and its network are healthy and just at the beginning of their life. Key is patience.
XBT/USD weekly range $ 550-$ 615 | ALMA daily moving average is still slightly bearish and the main resistance is unchanged at VWAP around $ 615.
I think the cross XBTUSD will remain below $ 615 this week with a second resistance at about $ 680. The weekly forecast is slighlt bearish but i don’t expect a break below $550 because of low volatility.
In case of a volatility spike due to another price crash the deal is to buy slightly above $420.
XBT / USD weekly range $ 640- $ 710 | ALMA daily moving average is slightly bearish and the main support is the VWAP at about $ 640. XBTUSD remains in bullish position always above the VWAP since June 24, last week it tested $640 and reacted from there but generally speaking we are in a flat congestion between 630 and 680 dollars, for short-term traders i recommend to trade this price range accordingly (between the two extreme of 570 and 780 US dollars).
The resistance zone is $ 710-780, I think that XBTUSD will remain above $ 640 again this week with a first resistance at around $ 680. The volatility continues to be very low and this will have to be solved sooner or later with a breakout above or below the price range defined by the deviation of the VWAP lines indicated in the graph. The weekly forecast remains unchanged, I think we will continue to see the bitcoin confined in this price range, between 640 and 710 US dollars.
The RSI oscillator remains in a neutral position around 50 although is slowly orienting for an upward movement.
The updated chart shows how the VWAP dynamic support (calculated with two months of data) coincides with an old resistance now turned support. I think this will be a key support to be observed in the coming days and will tell us if the bullish move has finished or not.
Because of high volatility the support area is big and XBTUSD is right in the middle, RSI is giving a sell signal this doesn’t mean a drop instead XBTUSD might go lateral for few weeks before resuming the uptrend. Any weakness below $580 would be interpreted as a definitive end of the current big upswing.
Bitcoin Trading Ideas, Analysis 