Tag: crypto

Short Tem Update: KAMA Levels

On By CryptoAdvisorIn Short Term Trading, weekly range update
KAMA Levels
KAMA Levels

XBT/USD weekly price range at 4000$-4950$ | The price range for this week is not very different from last week, we have seen until now a weak September with the price drop from the all time high of 5000$ and despite several negative news the XBTUSD has remained above 4000 dollars.
As you can see in the graph the support area using my KAMA indicator ranges from $3600 to $4000, the resistance zone from $4950 to $5350.
If the 4000$ support will work, then an upward cycle with a minimum target of 4950$ could start, otherwise the 2-month VWAP around 3400$ is an important support.
I think it’s unlikely to see bitcoin under the vwap at 2 months for this and also next week, otherwise it would mean that on the weekly chart a medium-long term correction has started; however it’s still early to say and let see if XBTUSD can stay above $4000 this week.

In case of a unexpected catastrophic news, the support area on the weekly chart is 2000-2500 USD

ITA Version here

Weekly Range Update

On By CryptoAdvisorIn Short Term Trading4 Comments
XBTUSD dailychart
XBTUSD dailychart

XBT / USD weekly price range is 3200$-4800$ | Our beloved cross pair XBTUSD is showing strength and it will probably test for the first time ever the fourth price deviation line of the 2 months VWAP that I normally don’t use, this 4th line defines the upper bound of the resistance zone ranging from 4200 to 4800 dollars.

I think that XBTUSD cross could reach 4800 dollars this week or the next one considering that all the cryptocurrencies sector is going up massively with bitcoin taking the lead and rising with the fastest speed. Market is appreciating the recent efforts to improve bitcoin’s capacity.

The average RSI oscillator has returned above the overbought area and it will probably stay between 70 and 95-100 when bitcoin is so strong, ALMA moving average is bullish since the bottom of  mid July.

In case of extreme fall, the support area is 1900-2400 USD

Weekly Range Update: BCC? We don’t care.

On By CryptoAdvisorIn Short Term Trading2 Comments
XBTUSD dailychart
XBTUSD dailychart

XBT / USD weekly price range at 2200$-3140$ | For this week the range is similar to the previous one because the 2 months VWAP average is basically flat. Last week I was expecting a breakout outside the congestion range with a new maximum or a test down to the VWAP  at 2440$, this latter possibility occurred.
As long as the price continues to remain above the VWAP at 2440$, the situation remains positive.

As for the other indicators I use in this template, you can see that the ALMA mov.average is still up and the RSI has almost tested the overbought zone at 70.

As for the tomorrow’s event I see it as the mere birth of a new altcoin, I do not expect a big impact on the XBTUSD cross price as it is not an unexpected news and has already been discounted by the market , it might have the effect to increase volatility but I don’t think that tomorrow will begin a bearish move due to this event.

In case of extreme fall, the support area is 1300$-1650$.

Follow me also on Twitter where I started to publish charts on both bitcoin and some of the most important altcoins using the TradingView.com platform
ITA version here

Weekly Range Update: Kama Levels

On By CryptoAdvisorIn Short Term Trading1 Comment
Kama Levels BTCUSD Composite Index
Kama Levels BTCUSD Composite Index

For this week I will use my KAMA indicator with deviation levels available on the TradingView platform for free, the weekly price range in case of low volatility could be 2400$-2650$, in case of normal volatility the expected range is 2300$-2760$.

In the attached chart, the XBTUSD composite index is used and it has been derived using the price data of seven bitcoin exchanges. The formula to use is as follows:

(Poloniex: btcusdt + btce: btcusd + bitfinex: btcusd + bitstamp: btcusd + coinbase: btcusd + kraken: xbtusd + ITbit: btcusd) / 7

This formula on tradingview.com generates a composite index of the XBTUSD cross making the average of 7 exchanges and adding all the volumes togheter, the seven exchanges used are:

  1. Poloniex
  2. BTCE
  3. BitFinex
  4. BitStamp
  5. Coinbase
  6. Kraken
  7. ITbit

Doing this is also useful to see the total volume activity that will give you better results if you are using volume based indicators.

This week, volatility dropped significantly and with the imminent closure of the symmetrical triangle, a pattern that, as I said in the previous update, expects a continuation of the underlying trend.
Next update will include VWAP and deviation levels, but you can still consider the deviation levels calculated by the KAMA average as enough reliable.

In case of a catastrophic event the support area is 1180$-1500$.

Follow me also on Twitter where I started tweeting charts about bitcoin and some altcoins too using the TradingView.com platform

ITA Version here

Weekly Range Update: flirting with resistance

On By CryptoAdvisorIn Short Term Trading, weekly range update
bitstampUSD 1 Day #1 2017-06-12 09_28_13.020
XBTUSD daily chart

XBT / USD weekly price range is 2600$-3000$ | Our beloved cross pair XBTUSD slowed its rise last week with a contraction of volatility without being able to stay consistently above 3k USD.
However, we must not forget that bitcoin remains in a very strong position since weeks being above the first positive deviation of VWAP and for more than ten days above the second deviation.
For this reason, I recently added a fourth line of deviation above VWAP that I normally don’t use, this 4th line defines the upper bound of resistance zone ranging from 3000 to 3400 dollars.

I think that XBTUSD cross could reach 3400 dollars this week or the next one considering that all the cryptocurrencies sector is going up massively though bitcoin is the one that is rising at the least speed. I have no sure explanation for this but I could hypothesize that it is because a decent amount of liquidity is flowing into altcoins draining resources from bitcoin.

The average RSI oscillator has returned over the overcrowded area and it is now obvious that in this extreme power situation this oscillator moves from the level defining the overcompatible which is 70 to full saturation around 95-100.

In case of extreme fall, the support area is 1050-1350 USD.

ITA version here.

Technical Update: KAMA, an underrated indicator

On By CryptoAdvisorIn Other8 Comments

Kama moving average is a very interesting filtering technique developed by P.Kaufman.
This moving average has been designed to account for market noise or volatility, KAMA will closely follow prices when swings are small and the noise is low, instead when the price swings widen KAMA will adjust trying to follow prices from a greater distance. This trend-following indicator can be used to identify the overall trend, time turning points and filter price movements when the market is flat avoiding annoying whipsaw false signals trades.

At the moment i’m working on a modified version of this indicator with the help of the tradingview online platform, i added deviation lines from the KAMA average and settings have been optimized to better track XBTUSD price movements on daily and weekly chart.

Here’s an example of this indicator applied to a weekly chart of XBTUSD with some comments.
xbtusd_w

It’s evident that when the market is flat the KAMA average is relatively stable without giving false signals, when this happens you can try to trade deviation lines to catch bottoms or tops.

About this week the secondary positive deviation line is around 3200$, should you go short at that level? Well is at your own risk to trade against the main tendency that now is bullish, instead you might follow the trend buying at the midline or below it, i’m enough sure that today sell-off is healthy and the price was just moving back to the midline point (KAMA average) from the first positive deviation line.

Beware that because of very large price variation during the same bar the KAMA and its deviation lines can change a bit. The indicator is available for free at tradingview.com, just look for “KAMA – Enky v1.0”.

Your feedback is highly appreciated and will help me improving this trading tool.