Tag: bitcoin

Weekly Range Update

On By CryptoAdvisorIn weekly range update
eng
Daily Chart XBTUSD @bitstamp

XBT / USD weekly range $598 – $634 | ALMA daily moving average is bullish and the main resistance is the second price deviation line above the VWAP @$630 while the support is always the VWAP @$570 although i think it will remain above 595$ also this week.

A rise above $630 is close for the same reason i told you severa times in the past weeks, XBTUSD is slowly accumulating and the weekly ALMA moving average already turned up but its slope is very low for now, in the upcoming weeks there should be a final breakout above $630.

The RSI oscillator has moved to an equilibrium point around 50 and there is enough room for more upside movement till the overbought zone.

In the event of a sharp fall, as said many times is always very valuable the support around $420.

Italian version here at Bitchanger.com

Weekly Range Update

On By CryptoAdvisorIn weekly range update

engXBT / USD weekly range $570 – $630 | ALMA daily moving average is flat and the main resistance is the second price deviation line above the VWAP @$630 while the support is always the VWAP @$570. For this week i reduced the volatility setting of the sierrachart vwap indicator because the spread between the lines was too high after the bitcoin collapse of August, this adjustment was necessary and now as you can see the new setting better identifies supports and resistances. (For who uses this indicator with Sierrachart trading platform i adjusted the multiplier from 1-2-3-4 to 0,66-1,33-2-2,66)

I think that XBTUSD should remain below $ 630 also this week but a rise above this resistance is close, why? Because the ALMA average on the weekly chart appears to have turned upside and the breakout above $630 would be the confirmation of this reversal. For those wishing to go short I advise to wait at least $ 660 for this week before trying a short sell.

The RSI oscillator has reversed to the downside BUT since we are in a bullish move the RSI threshold of 50 provides support. An important point of the RSI indicator is the midline at 50 because it acts as support or resistance. Around this level there are many fake-outs, sometimes the RSI will fall just below 50 causing sell stops then suddenly the price just rebound. Likewise if crossing above 50, shorts will be covered only to see a resumed downward move. You must pay attention when the RSI is near this midline.

In the event of a sharp fall, as said many times is always very valuable the support around $420.

Italian version here at Bitchanger.com

Weekly Range Update

On By CryptoAdvisorIn Short Term Trading, weekly range update1 Comment
eng
Daily Chart XBTUSD @Bitstamp

XBT/USD weekly range $ 580-$ 630 | ALMA daily moving average is going flat after many days of good advance and the main resistance is now the first positive deviation line of the VWAP at around $ 630.

I think the cross XBTUSD will remain below $ 630 this week with a second resistance at about $ 680. The weekly ALMA moving average is apparently turning up but i don’t expect a break above $630 because also of an high reading of the RSI oscillator that is in overbought territory above the 70 threshold value..

I said in many previous updates that in case of a volatility spike due to another price crash the deal is to buy slightly above $420.

Italian version here at bitchanger.com

Long Term Update: Weekly View

On By CryptoAdvisorIn Long Term Trading1 Comment
eng
XBTUSD Weekly chart with price regression channel

This is a weekly chart since the bottom of March, 2015; the underlying weekly tendency is still up since then.
Inside this long term up channel there are secondary tendencies or cycles clearly visibile and highlighted by the alma moving average.

Last up cycle ended on the top just outside the high volatility zone in June 2016. After 3 months we are still in a secondary  down cycle inside a big up cycle. As i’ve told you in previous updates the maximum extension of this down cycle is at $420 as indicated in the above chart, i doubt we will see weakness below this important level.

At the moment the price is exactly at the middle point of the price regression channel and it’s very hard to say which direction it’ll take, in any case if there will be a new crash down to $420 i’ll further increase my long term position; at the same time if XBTUSD start to stay consistently below $420 i’ve to conclude that the long term up cycle is over and a bear market is ahead.

As i’ve said many times in the past years i don’t believe in a prolonged bear market because bitcoin and its network are healthy and just at the beginning of their life. Key is patience.

Weekly Range Update

On By CryptoAdvisorIn Short Term Trading, weekly range update1 Comment

 

eng
Daily Chart @bitstamp

XBT/USD weekly range $ 550-$ 615 | ALMA daily moving average is still slightly bearish and the main resistance is unchanged at VWAP around $ 615.

I think the cross XBTUSD will remain below $ 615 this week with a second resistance at about $ 680. The weekly forecast is slighlt bearish but i don’t expect a break below $550 because of low volatility.

In case of a volatility spike due to another price crash the deal is to buy slightly above $420.

Weekly Range Update

On By CryptoAdvisorIn Short Term Trading, weekly range update
xbtusd daily chart @bistamp
xbtusd daily chart @bistamp

XBT/USD weekly range $ 550-$ 620 | ALMA daily moving average is slightly bearish and the main resistance for now is always the VWAP at $ 620.

I think the cross XBTUSD will remain below $ 620 this week with a second resistance at about $ 690. Volatility has stabilized. The weekly forecast is flat, i don’t expect a break above $620 or below $550.

The average of the RSI  oscillator turned upward and is giving some bullish indications but only a breakout above $ 620 would confirm a bullish scenario.

This article at steemit
Italian version at bitchanger.com

Weekly Range Update

On By CryptoAdvisorIn Short Term Trading, weekly range update1 Comment
eng
XBTUSD @bitstamp

XBT / USD weekly range $ 495- $ 640 | ALMA daily moving average is still bearish and the main resistance is the VWAP which adjusted to about $ 640 after the flash crash caused by Bitfinex.

I think the cross XBTUSD will remain below $ 640 this week with a second resistance at about $ 715. Volatility after the peak of last week is now stabilizing. The weekly forecast remains bearish, I think we will continue to see the bitcoin below the VWAP to $ 640. The actual price rebound could already be exhausted, if so then i expect a retest of the $565 price level.

The average of RSI oscillator is turning upward but has not yet given a bullish signal, it is at 26 and below the threshold of 30 that identifies the oversold zone.

Because of bitfinex exchange going offline i’m moving back to using bitstamp data.

This article at steemit
Italian version at bitchanger.com

Long Term Update

On By CryptoAdvisorIn Long Term Trading1 Comment

This is a template i use with metatrader 4 where you can see a price regression channel. Yellow line is the same average i use on sierrachart, ALMA moving average.

weekly
Weekly Chart since October 2013

The dotted deviation lines are calculated using the volatility derived from the average true range indicator. The solid deviation lines are calculated with the same approach but using two times the value of the average true range. Most of the time XBTUSD stays inside the dotted deviation lines but during period of high volatility it moves towards the solid deviation lines as happened in the last Top of June at $780.

With the bitfinex flash crash XBTUSD tested the first lower deviation line at $475 although on some exchanges the bottom touched $460. I don’t think is over yet, there might be a secondary reaction that can last all this month and maybe part of September with a test of the lower deviation line, this price level is near $400 as indicated in the chart.

The color of the mid-channel line represents the strength of the trend, red if bearish, white for neutral and green if bullish, at the moment the main trend is bullish and it’ll not change if XBTUSD doesn’t move below $400 for a prolonged period of time. I’m not going to liquidate my position as soon XBTUSD stays inside this long term bullish price channel.

As usual this article is available also at steemit.

Weekly Range Update

On By CryptoAdvisorIn Short Term Trading, weekly range update3 Comments
XBTUSD daily Chart with support resistance levels
XBTUSD daily Chart with support resistance levels

XBT / USD weekly range $605-$ 660 | ALMA daily moving average is bearish and the main resistance is the VWAP at about $ 660, first support at $605.

XBTUSD broke previous week support and is now in a weak position under $ 660 US dollars. The resistance zone is $ 660-710, I think that XBTUSD will remain below $ 660 this week with a second resistance at about $ 710. The volatility finally increased with a drop in the last weekend.

The weekly forecast remains bearish, I think we will continue to see the bitcoin below the VWAP at $ 660.

The only positive note is the RSI oscillator that entered in oversold territory after a while and could allow a bitcoin rebound in the next few days, rebound which should end at the VWAP ($ 660).

 

  • Italian version here at Bitchanger
  • I’m posting also at steemit, if you want to follow me there and upvote my posts click here.

Weekly Range Update

On By CryptoAdvisorIn Short Term Trading, weekly range update
eng
XBTUSD daily chart

XBT / USD weekly range $ 640- $ 710 | ALMA daily moving average is slightly bearish and the main support is the VWAP at about $ 640. XBTUSD remains in bullish position always above the VWAP since June 24, last week it tested $640 and reacted from there but generally speaking we are in a flat congestion between 630 and 680 dollars, for short-term traders i recommend to trade this price range accordingly (between the two extreme of 570 and 780 US dollars).

The resistance zone is $ 710-780, I think that XBTUSD will remain above $ 640 again this week with a first resistance at around $ 680. The volatility continues to be very low and this will have to be solved sooner or later with a breakout above or below the price range defined by the deviation of the VWAP lines indicated in the graph. The weekly forecast remains unchanged, I think we will continue to see the bitcoin confined in this price range, between 640 and 710 US dollars.

The RSI oscillator remains in a neutral position around 50 although is slowly orienting for an upward movement.

Weekly Range Update

On By CryptoAdvisorIn Short Term Trading, weekly range update
XBTUSD daily chart
XBTUSD daily chart

XBT / USD weekly range $ 635- $ 710 | ALMA daily moving average rose upward and the main support is the VWAP at about $ 635. XBTUSD resists above the VWAP for almost a month. The resistance price zone is $ 710-800, I think that XBTUSD will remain above $ 635 also this week with a first support at around $ 670, which corresponds to the ALMA moving average I use. It remains to be seen if market participants will manage to push the bitcoin price over the resistance at $ 710, the volatility after a period of contraction increased again and it did it by pushing up prices rather than downward, a positive note that leaves some hope for a break above $ 710.

The RSI oscillator remains in neutral position around 50, yet there seems to be a trend strong enough to move above $ 710, at least this week.

Mid-Week Range Update

On By CryptoAdvisorIn Short Term Trading, weekly range update2 Comments

imageXBT/USD range till sunday $625-$740 | daily moving average is bulllish but slowing down and main support is at VWAP near $625 , i expect less volatility these days while the halving is coming next saturday. Eventually sunday after the halving the market might spike up to the resistance price zone 740-800 usd.

RSI oscillator average is near oversold territory and reversing to the upside, i don’t expect this market to move below $620.