Weekly Range Update

eng
Daily Chart XBTUSD @bitstamp

XBT / USD weekly price range 625$-680$ | daily ALMA moving average is firmly upward with a good slope, this week the main resistance is again on the third price deviation line above the VWAP at 680$ while about the support I decided to consider the first positive price deviation line of the VWAP now @625$ , this support has been already tested on October 19 at the slight correction that happened that day, a correction that i was expecting last week in my update of October 17. After this correction i was expecting a resume of the uptrend up to $660, an upmove that promptly happened.
The bullish activity of the last two weeks has been the consequence of the weekly cycle that has turned upwards between the end of August and the first part of September.

The average RSI oscillator is in overbought zone and I think that bitcoin will ignore this indicator for a while and will remain overbought for a certain period of time because of the fact that the dominant timeframe is the weekly one. The maximum extension of this weekly cycle should be around $870 for the next weeks.

In the event of a sharp fall, as i said many times is always the very valuable support area around $440.

Italian version here at bitchanger.com

Weekly Range Update

eng
Daily Chart XBTUSD

XBT / USD weekly range $595 – $630 | ALMA daily moving average is flat and the main resistance is the second price deviation line above the VWAP @$630 while the support is always the VWAP @$560, similar price range of the last week.

I think that XBTUSD should remain below $ 630 also this week but a rise above this resistance is close for the same reason i told you in the previous update, the weekly ALMA moving average is slowly turning upward. For those wishing to go short I advise to wait at least $ 660 for this week, more probably next week, before trying a short sell. In any case  i do not recommend to go short for prolonged period of times because the underlying trend is still up.

The RSI oscillator has moved to oversold territory and failed to stay above the threshold of 50 that usually provides support. The average of the oscillator apparently is doing a bottom with the RSI itself that already crossed the thresold of 30 giving a bullish signal.

In the event of a sharp fall, as said many times is always very valuable the support around $420.

Italian version here at Bitchanger.com

Weekly Range Update

eng
Daily Chart XBTUSD @Bitstamp

XBT/USD weekly range $ 580-$ 630 | ALMA daily moving average is going flat after many days of good advance and the main resistance is now the first positive deviation line of the VWAP at around $ 630.

I think the cross XBTUSD will remain below $ 630 this week with a second resistance at about $ 680. The weekly ALMA moving average is apparently turning up but i don’t expect a break above $630 because also of an high reading of the RSI oscillator that is in overbought territory above the 70 threshold value..

I said in many previous updates that in case of a volatility spike due to another price crash the deal is to buy slightly above $420.

Italian version here at bitchanger.com

Weekly Range Update

 

eng
Daily Chart @bitstamp

XBT/USD weekly range $ 550-$ 615 | ALMA daily moving average is still slightly bearish and the main resistance is unchanged at VWAP around $ 615.

I think the cross XBTUSD will remain below $ 615 this week with a second resistance at about $ 680. The weekly forecast is slighlt bearish but i don’t expect a break below $550 because of low volatility.

In case of a volatility spike due to another price crash the deal is to buy slightly above $420.

Weekly Range Update

xbtusd daily chart @bistamp
xbtusd daily chart @bistamp

XBT/USD weekly range $ 550-$ 620 | ALMA daily moving average is slightly bearish and the main resistance for now is always the VWAP at $ 620.

I think the cross XBTUSD will remain below $ 620 this week with a second resistance at about $ 690. Volatility has stabilized. The weekly forecast is flat, i don’t expect a break above $620 or below $550.

The average of the RSI  oscillator turned upward and is giving some bullish indications but only a breakout above $ 620 would confirm a bullish scenario.

This article at steemit
Italian version at bitchanger.com

Weekly Range Update

eng
XBTUSD @bitstamp

XBT / USD weekly range $ 495- $ 640 | ALMA daily moving average is still bearish and the main resistance is the VWAP which adjusted to about $ 640 after the flash crash caused by Bitfinex.

I think the cross XBTUSD will remain below $ 640 this week with a second resistance at about $ 715. Volatility after the peak of last week is now stabilizing. The weekly forecast remains bearish, I think we will continue to see the bitcoin below the VWAP to $ 640. The actual price rebound could already be exhausted, if so then i expect a retest of the $565 price level.

The average of RSI oscillator is turning upward but has not yet given a bullish signal, it is at 26 and below the threshold of 30 that identifies the oversold zone.

Because of bitfinex exchange going offline i’m moving back to using bitstamp data.

This article at steemit
Italian version at bitchanger.com

Offtopic: Cacoethes scribendi

“Cacoethes scribendi” or translated from Latin to english “a burning desire to write”, writing always of bitcoin sometimes is boring, today i show you the template i use with metatrader 4 applied to other assets like stocks, indexes and altcoin.

I already explained that an idea that i like is to do a price regression of our asset using a filter that eliminates all cycles below 30-40 periods with the intent to extract the underlying long term trend, then you can try to earn some money trading the secondary cycles that move the price up and down inside the price channel.

SP500/N100 weekly chart

sp500

Mid channel line color is white thus this market is neutral the ideal situation to trade the price levels, at the moment there could be a short opportunity, stoploss above the dotted positive deviation line.

n100

Similar situation for the nasdaq 100 index.

GBPUSD

gbpusd

The big drop of the Brexit is clearly visible, the pound should stay above 1.29, it’s the moment to buy with a stoploss below 1.28

Nikkei 225

nikkei225

Nikkei is short for Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average, it is a price-weighted index comprised of Japan’s top 225 blue-chip companies traded on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The Nikkei is equivalent to the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index in the United States.
In this mothky chart is visibile the big rise fueled by the quantitative easing of the Japan Central Bank and the subsequent drop after flirting with the resistance at 21000.
At the moment it is holding above the first negative deviation line, i don’t see any trading opportunity.

Tesla

tesla.png

On the weekly chart the tendency is neutral, midline color is white, ideal to trade secondary cycles like the one that pushed down Tesla below 150 usd and below our support, a very good trading opportunity, it is possible also to trade the dotted levels but they are less safe.

Ferrari

ferrari

Daily chart of ferrari (RACE ticker), after an interesting double bottom on the support this stock trended higher above the resistance after the earnings.
I think we are seeing a buying climax and in this situations is smart to sell the good news, i see a short trade opportunity here but it’s wise to wait some weak signals from this stock before going on.

Nintendo and the Pokemon Go Bubble

nintendo

No comment here, the bubble is evident but this stock is still hovering above midline and the long term trend is bullish. Again a nice double bottom at the support.

Apple

aapl

Last five years of Apple in this monthly chart, here the support levels worked almost perfectly. Apple is losing some steam as the midline color is white, neutral long term tendency despite you can see a sequence of higher highs and lows. The stock reacted from the dotted line at around 90 usd but i’m not sure is going up yet, the trading opportunity here is a test at 75-80 usd this year or the next one.

ETCUSD – Hourly chart

etcusd

Hourly chart of ethereum classic, again bubbles are clearly visible. Some congestion outside the upper solid deviation line it’s the warning signal, be prepared to open a short. Now volatility is a bit lower and this altcoin is moving inside the dotted deviation lines. I see a buying opportunity once 1.85 usd is tested.

Conclusions

This price channel indicator is an improvement of the classic bollinger bands indicator, what i don’t like of the bollinger bands is the wrong way to compute the upper and lower bands that might lead to very misleading values sometimes as i explained at the end of this old article. To keep things simple i omitted to include some timing indicators, for example adding the Walter Bressert DSS oscillator with ethereum classic we have:

etcusd+dss

Clean cycles togheter with a correct approach to spot support/resistance levels and you have a decent guide to follow. This oscillator is configured using 9 periods and 5 periods for a second pass smoothing.

 

 

Weekly Range Update

XBTUSD daily Chart with support resistance levels
XBTUSD daily Chart with support resistance levels

XBT / USD weekly range $605-$ 660 | ALMA daily moving average is bearish and the main resistance is the VWAP at about $ 660, first support at $605.

XBTUSD broke previous week support and is now in a weak position under $ 660 US dollars. The resistance zone is $ 660-710, I think that XBTUSD will remain below $ 660 this week with a second resistance at about $ 710. The volatility finally increased with a drop in the last weekend.

The weekly forecast remains bearish, I think we will continue to see the bitcoin below the VWAP at $ 660.

The only positive note is the RSI oscillator that entered in oversold territory after a while and could allow a bitcoin rebound in the next few days, rebound which should end at the VWAP ($ 660).

 

  • Italian version here at Bitchanger
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Weekly Range Update

eng
XBTUSD daily chart

XBT / USD weekly range $ 640- $ 710 | ALMA daily moving average is slightly bearish and the main support is the VWAP at about $ 640. XBTUSD remains in bullish position always above the VWAP since June 24, last week it tested $640 and reacted from there but generally speaking we are in a flat congestion between 630 and 680 dollars, for short-term traders i recommend to trade this price range accordingly (between the two extreme of 570 and 780 US dollars).

The resistance zone is $ 710-780, I think that XBTUSD will remain above $ 640 again this week with a first resistance at around $ 680. The volatility continues to be very low and this will have to be solved sooner or later with a breakout above or below the price range defined by the deviation of the VWAP lines indicated in the graph. The weekly forecast remains unchanged, I think we will continue to see the bitcoin confined in this price range, between 640 and 710 US dollars.

The RSI oscillator remains in a neutral position around 50 although is slowly orienting for an upward movement.

Weekly Range Update

XBTUSD daily chart
XBTUSD daily chart

XBT / USD weekly range $ 635- $ 710 | ALMA daily moving average rose upward and the main support is the VWAP at about $ 635. XBTUSD resists above the VWAP for almost a month. The resistance price zone is $ 710-800, I think that XBTUSD will remain above $ 635 also this week with a first support at around $ 670, which corresponds to the ALMA moving average I use. It remains to be seen if market participants will manage to push the bitcoin price over the resistance at $ 710, the volatility after a period of contraction increased again and it did it by pushing up prices rather than downward, a positive note that leaves some hope for a break above $ 710.

The RSI oscillator remains in neutral position around 50, yet there seems to be a trend strong enough to move above $ 710, at least this week.

Weekly Range Update

Daily Chart @bitfinex exchange
Daily Chart @bitfinex exchange

XBT / USD weekly range $ 625-$ 710 | ALMA daily moving average is slightly bearish and the main support is always the VWAP at about $ 625. XBTUSD resists above the VWAP and several times the price has attempted to move below it without particular success, this support level (@625$) has been broken in some cases slightly and then quickly recovered. The resistance zone is $710-$800, I think that XBTUSD will remain above the $625 this week, otherwise I see the area $540- $ 580 as a very important one. $580 is the mid-level between VWAP and -1 dev.line at $540.

The oscillator RSI after having touched the oversold area has rebounded and now is in the neutral zone around 50. The halving of block from 25 to 12.5 bitcoins for now has not led to an increase in volatility.

Italian verso here at Bitchanger

Mid-Week Range Update

imageXBT/USD range till sunday $625-$740 | daily moving average is bulllish but slowing down and main support is at VWAP near $625 , i expect less volatility these days while the halving is coming next saturday. Eventually sunday after the halving the market might spike up to the resistance price zone 740-800 usd.

RSI oscillator average is near oversold territory and reversing to the upside, i don’t expect this market to move below $620.