This week i feature a weekly XBTUSD chart of last 2 years, including a two-year VWAP average with deviation lines. For more than two years bitcoin has been above the 2Y WVAP and in recent weeks has moved far away from this average with a strong upward trend. In the attached chart I included a static resistance at 2900$ that I had calculated in the yearly forecast that I publish each January.

It’s unlikely that I’ve called the top for this year and as I said to some users in the comments in one of my previous articles, I think there is room to enter the resistance zone highlighted in the chart. The support zone, if a medium-term correction is made on the weekly chart, is the price range from 1600$ to 2200$.

The range for this week is 2330$-2780$ and in case of a catastrophic fall, the usual support area is 1050$-1350$.

ITA version here.

Midweek updated deviation levels and VWAP

Price today tested the first positive deviation line (bitstamp data), 2 months VWAP is now at 1789$ and in case of a further drop below it I’ll increase my long term position, from 150 to 175 bitcoins.

RSI oscillator is near the midline (50) and when there are strong uptrends it usually acts as support, i don’t think it will go straight to oversold without a rebound first.

XBT / USD weekly price range is 2040$ – 2680$. | With this update I introduce an additional deviation line from the 2-months VWAP reference average.

The 2-month VWAP may be a bit slow now that XBTUSD is experiencing quite high volatility levels, so for an appropriate price range I decided to introduce the fourth line of deviation.

When a market is very strong it is possible that it moves between the first and second line of deviation that acts as support and resistance defining a price channel. At the moment XBTUSD is moving between the second and the third line and it does not happen very often and if you look the RSI you can see that it is oscillating between the overbought threshold (70) and the maximum value of 95-100, an extreme situation if compared to other financial assets.

Fundamentally this is an expanding market that reminds me the exuberance of stock markets from 1996 to 2000, why do I think that? Well just look, for example, at the unsustainable ascension of ethereum, an altcoin that does not have the magic ingredient to solve the scalability problems that all cryptocurrencies have and yet part of the audience perceives this altcoin as different and superior to the others and does not think twice before buying it despite it doubled its value in just six days as well as 20 years ago investors bought technologically overvalued companies that within a few months increased their listing value by two, three times and even more.
Do not get me wrong, because I think the peak is still a few years away but just be careful diversifying in altcoins.

Returning to XBTUSD cross and considering the current level of volatility it is not excluded to see it above 2400$ by the end of the week, the support area I consider is around 2040$ but in case of another profit taking support is at 1720$.

In case of extreme fall the support area is 850-1200$.
Ita version here.

XBT / USD weekly price range is 1667$ – 1893$ | Last week’s profits taking mean that a possible top has been made at about 1900$, for this week I think the price might remain confined inside the resistance zone shown in the chart (1667$-1890$).

Should an increase in volatility materialize it is not excluded that XBTUSD might visit lower levels, for example down to 1440$.

The ALMA average is always firmly up and the RSI dropped a bit down to the overbought threshold at 70. A drop to 1450$ would allow the RSI to finally move back to the oversold zone.

In case of extreme fall the support area is 800$-1100$.

ITA version here

XBT / USD weekly price range is 1425$-1720$ | I’ve included a short-term view of the last 6 days, i think that XBTUSD will continue to follow the resistance and support lines of the 3 days VWAP.

This market, however, seems to remain very bullish together with all the other altcoins.
I consider 1700$ a good resistance level for this week.

The daily ALMA moving average is bullish without any signs of slowing down and the RSI is in the overbought area. When a market is so strong in my opinion it doesn’t make much sense to consider over-bought signals to open a short position because they aren’t reliable enough when the underlying trend is so bullish.

In case of a catastrophic event the support area is now 750$-1050$.

Once I’ve found a decent value as a volatility coefficient to compute deviation lines this market responds very well to these levels.

XBTUSD failed to pass the first positive deviation line then a retracement back to VWAP where it consolidated a bit and now it’s reacting again to the upside.

Resistance remains the 1620$-1720$ price zone.

XBTUSD found support inside the support area that i’ve forecasted yesterday, considering the overall bullish sentiment of bitcoin i’d have been surprised to see a bottom below 1400$.

Resistance level should remain the same, starting from 1720$.
As a side note you can see on the attached chart that with a 3 days only chart levels and VWAP change quickly.