This is a short term view of the last 7 days (the distance between two vertical dotted lines is 24 hours), after the first up swing the market retraced down to the fibonacci retracement of ~62% at 13.3$ and it’s rebouncing from there approaching to what i call the death zone represented by the 7/8 of the distance measured from the low point to the high point of the reference swing. In this case it would be the area around 14.4$.
I call it the Death Zone because this is where many promising new swings die an early death without going above the reference top.
I’m not going to buy here because of the negative overall scenario, but for who want to give a try i recommend to apply a tight stop loss if the fibonacci retracement fails to provide support.

LONG | from an average price of 15.18$/btc with 1 unit (100 btc)

The BTC/USD is now following a discending triangle with the base at 14.50$, the line in the sand. I think that my short term trade is compromised, the odds are for a breakdown once the discending triangle is closed. The first warning was the sell signal from the oscillator at 15.30$ or so. Let’s see how it develop, in the worst case i’ll take a loss of 80$.

Not much happened since my last update, btc/usd failed to break above 15.80$ but the zone around 15.20$ is providing support. Overall the volatility is barely enough to compensate high MtGox transaction fee for who want to trade intraday swings with a 15-30 min chart.

In the last 48 hours the usd/btc broke the symmetrical triangle i pointed out in the previous post. It bounced at my forecasted resistance of 15.80$, later the usd/btc has managed to form a descending triangle and break out of it finding again support of my last range estimate around 15.20$.

At this point we are seeing a small ascending triangle developing, in the next couple of hours it will close it and again it will be a test to see if it can reverse to the upside above 15.80$ or it will continue to go down.

This is a four hour chart of last two weeks, i’ve drawn the same symmetrical triangle  shown in my previous post, recently the usd/btc dropped a bit after a nice sell of 20,000 bitcoins. The lower boundary estimate of my daily range forecast (available on my twitter channel) worked and the price didnt get through 15.60$ support.

For the next 24 hours i’ve the zone at 15-15.20$ as support, but i dont think it is going to do another lower low if the volatility remains as low as the last three days.

The situation at tradehill exchange is not much different, with falling volume activity after the mtgox reopening and price tied to what happens at mtgox.

Last time i closed a short term trade was at 28.80$ and the long term trade at about 16$, not much happened since then and we need a new ignition of fresh capital from new investors to reverse the current stagnant phase.

This is a fast update after one full week of halted trading activity at MtGox. For who follow my twitter daily range forecast, here a short explanation on how it works. My estimate of the daily range is computed using volatility, i already explained in the past how i do it; if price stays above the midpoint we are in a strong position otherwise under it the price is in a weak position. It is difficult to have a definitive and reliable estimation of volatility at MtGox and generally on all bitcoin exchanges, because they are small and not enough liquid to provide stability in the price action. For the daily range i publish on twitter i compute levels that have more chances of being hit and may provide a guide for your daytrading operativity. You may also interpret a break out of the resistance or support level here indicated as a strong activity of the market in that particular direction.

It is interesting to observe how the investors that trade at Tradehill reacted during the MtGox drama. The volume activity is very low compared to MtGox but still insightful, during the big fall at MtGox tradehill followed the drop down to 10, the day after it crashed to 6$ for then recovering close to 14$. I think that when MtGox will reopen we might observe the same phenomenon.

OUT OF MARKET | waiting a break out of the narrow range of last 2 days

Dull moment for the mtgox bitcoin market. After two days of repeated denial of service attacks the market moved in a narrow range. I computed for the next 24 hours support and resistance using an halved value for volatility, i’m interested to see also the impact of the recent increase of the difficulty factor (from 567000 to 876000, +54%).

LONG | from 8.47$/btc with 1 unit (100 btc)

After i bought two days ago, following a reverse with the 2 hour chart,the market reacted nicely to the upside with some hesitation to take out the 9 level. I’m ready to close this short term trade once the inverse fischer rsi gives me a sell signal.

I think the drop from 9.40 has ended and that a sustained up swing is underway, i’m monitoring the four hour chart, it is smoother compared to the hourly chart, we need probably more liquidity to be able to use also this time frame for quick day trading; thus so far I’ve been paying more attention to 2 and 4 hour chart. Too bad that for now isn’t possible to sell short with mtgox and also option trading it’s missing, otherwise it would have been possible to sell short at 8.60 with a minimum target of 0.5$ down to 8.10 or 8 where to cover the short trade.

SHORT TERM | LONG 1 unit at an average price of 7.13$

Not much buying in the last 24 hours, market is sliding towards 6.60$ that provided support yesterday, I remain focused and stick to my strategy to keep my short term position up to 6.60$ and then, if 6.60 will be broken with consistence i’ll sell my position to avoid further losses.