Author: CryptoAdvisor

Bitcoin Fan and Trader.

Long Term Update: MtGox weekly view

On By CryptoAdvisorIn Long Term Trading6 Comments

The situation is very clear using a longer time frame like the weekly one.
Since the June top at 32$ every weekly bar have had a lower high, the bounce from the recent 5.74$ low has completed and now we are resuming the downtrend. A first important step for a weekly reversal to the upside will be to do not break the recent low with an higher low maybe around 6.50$, from there it is necessary to break above the 12$ resistance; without all of this it is impossible to avoid a new low under 5.74$

The inverse RSI fisher transform is oversold for 5 weeks now (it has never happened before) confirming the downtrend .  For all the long term investors i hope that the slide will stabilize over 5.5$-6$ during september but the BTC/USD needs a new wave of fresh investors otherwise this downtrend will never stop (eventually it will slow down) due to miners that needs to sell bitcoins to pay back mining costs.

Short Term Update: MtGox 4h chart

On By CryptoAdvisorIn Short Term Trading4 Comments

BTC/USD failed to breakout above 12$ and if it is going to stay above 10.50$ then a new attempt  to attack the 12$ resistance is possible.
The inverse fisher Rsi oscillator is still overbought and so the short term rally is still intact.

About the NY conference, i think there will be a time lag of  2-3 weeks before some effect on prices show up. It was a good event and the presenters did a great job, we need many conferences like this in the upcoming months if we want to see a bullish autumn.

Short Term Update: MtGox

On By CryptoAdvisorIn Short Term Trading1 Comment

I already explained in the past that  once an ascending triangle breakout occurs the most common price target is generally set to be equal to the entry price plus the vertical height of the triangle, in this case 12$ plus ~5$ equal 17$.

Looking the 4 hours chart here on the left i expect the breakout to occur in the next 48-72 hours; if not then the outlook provided by my elliot wave software will be right again, this outlook has always been bearish on the longer time frames after the 32$ top in june (more info to come on the next long term update).

At the moment I am not very impressed by recent bullish action since it was expected after a huge sell off, it is a normal bounce. I’m curious to see if the bitcoin conference currently held in NY will attract new investors so to ignite a new strong rally in september, or at least to break in the short term that ascending triangle pattern.

Short Term Update: MtGox & Tradehill

On By CryptoAdvisorIn Short Term Trading4 Comments

BTC/USD after a 50% retracement to the 9$ support rebounced nicely up to the resistance at 12$. As indicated in the chart i’ve my Alma weekly moving average at 11.93$, in the last six weeks the BTC/USD has never been able to stay above it, thus this average is showing to be a reliable indicator for the long term. A breakout of this average could be the first warning for a long term reverse of the actual downtrend.

Finally, I should like to say a word or two on Tradehill, this exchange was born as a valid alternative to MtGox but so far it failed to meet expectations. Why? well because if you look the daily volume activity it is not growing, always beetween 1000 and 2000 bitcoins exchanged every day on average; numbers never lie.

Mtgox is and will remain the leading exchange for a long time ahead.

Short Term Update: MtGox

On By CryptoAdvisorIn Short Term Trading6 Comments

BTC/USD as usual is very volatile when large bitcoin holders enter/exit the market. In around 72 hours it moved from 5.75$ to 12$, the break out of my today range estimate (above 9-9.5$) is good but the overall long term picture is still bearish until the market show me the contrary. Looking my previous post, the weekly moving average is at 12$ and it will not be easy to pass it.

As i said in a couple of old posts the 9$ was my long term reference support, the fact that it quickly recovered that support could let me think that the recent drop down 9$ was only a selling climax. BTC/USD should stay above 9$ for the next 24-48 hours, possibly with a quick test of 7.5$ ; lower bound of today range estimate is at 6.2$ but i remain optimistic that the 7.5-9$ zone will hold.

Long Term Update: MtGox

On By CryptoAdvisorIn Long Term Trading3 Comments

After a long sequence of lower weekly highs, since the 32$ top, the BTC/USD has made a strong breakdown below my 9$ long term static support, the subsequence bounce to 11$ it is normal and the overall outlook remains bearish.

I calculated an hypothetical maximum extension of this weekly downswing from 32$ and it is around 6.50$, this target is in line with the secondary target of the elliott wave software i use (using the cycle and primary time frame, both suitable for long term investors), i dont think we are going to see lower prices then that for the next weeks.

Short Term Update: MtGox 2h chart

On By CryptoAdvisorIn Short Term Trading2 Comments

This is a short term view of the last 2 weeks (the distance between two vertical dotted lines is 24 hours), the fibonacci retracement of ~62% at 13.3$ is working, after a brief test few hours ago the BTC/USD bounced to 13.7$, it is important to stay above it and i think the short term trend will reverse today with a new sequence of higher highs and lows. I’ll evalute to close the trade under the 13.3$ support but i remain confident that it will hold.

Short Term Update: MtGox 2h chart

On By CryptoAdvisorIn Short Term Trading6 Comments

This is a short term view of the last 7 days (the distance between two vertical dotted lines is 24 hours), after the first up swing the market retraced down to the fibonacci retracement of ~62% at 13.3$ and it’s rebouncing from there approaching to what i call the death zone represented by the 7/8 of the distance measured from the low point to the high point of the reference swing. In this case it would be the area around 14.4$.
I call it the Death Zone because this is where many promising new swings die an early death without going above the reference top.
I’m not going to buy here because of the negative overall scenario, but for who want to give a try i recommend to apply a tight stop loss if the fibonacci retracement fails to provide support.

Long Term Update: MtGox

On By CryptoAdvisorIn Long Term Trading3 Comments

Cycle, Primary, Intermediate and Minor wave degrees are all pointing down, it is still a sell or stay out of the market advice and nothing’s changed much since my first elliott wave outlook . The recent drop under 13$ is a confirmation of this bearish situation.

As i said, now four consecutive wave degrees show a clear NEGATIVE trend, the conservative target of 11.50$ has not yet been reached but as more and more wave degrees shown a negative trend the probability of a meltdown increases considerably, even down to the secondary target at about 10$.
For the Elliott Wave theory, this is a very long term signal since it starts with the Cycle wave degree followed by the Primary and Intermediate wave degrees. The typical wave degree for the medium-long term investor is the intermediate one, which is currently pushing the price down to 11.50$. 

I’ll be a buyer when all this bearishness will evaporate after an important bottom probably under 11$ and with a confirmation from the moving average i use and the oscillator (still oversold).

Long Term Update: MtGox

On By CryptoAdvisorIn Long Term Trading2 Comments

Despite the fact that btc/usd has broken my long term downtrend line the overall picture remains weak. We could have seen the first shy attempt of a major trend reversal but it’s not enough, for who has experience of elliott wave analisys we have all the major waves inherent to a long term investment horizon pointing down (primary, intermediate and minor wave degrees).  The indications i’m giving in this update apply to longer term investors for a price moves of possibly 30% or more, since Primary, Intermediate and Minor Wave degrees are all DOWN. The most certain price target is the target of the Minor wave degree, which is in wave 3, at 14.2$, normally also the target of the next higher wave degree could be reached at 13.6$, which is in wave 2.

Instead, looking for a possible target for the Primary time frame , we are in a wave 3 and the first target is at 11.80$.

It’s a good sign that all these targets are above the long term static support placed at 9$.

Short Term Update: MtGox

On By CryptoAdvisorIn Short Term Trading

LONG | from an average price of 15.18$/btc with 1 unit (100 btc)

The BTC/USD is now following a discending triangle with the base at 14.50$, the line in the sand. I think that my short term trade is compromised, the odds are for a breakdown once the discending triangle is closed. The first warning was the sell signal from the oscillator at 15.30$ or so. Let’s see how it develop, in the worst case i’ll take a loss of 80$.

Long Term Update: MtGox

On By CryptoAdvisorIn Long Term Trading

The BTC/USD bounced nicely from recent low at 11$, it is breaking the long discending trendline i’ve drawn. Personally i wouldn’t open a long term trade only on a temporary break out of a descending trendline; despite the good volume seen during the current bounce i’ll prefer to wait before abandoning my first scenario of an important test of the 9$ long term support;  in any case if i see strength above 16.75$ i’ll evaluate a buy on a break out of a strong level i compute as usual.