BTC/USD completed as expected the rebound up to 12.40$ i think that it will remain under it for the remaining part of this week. In my previous update i’ve said that i’d have considered a buy above 11.3$, well i’m not too much convinced for a mid term up movement because of the upcoming block halving date (it’s expected to happen tomorrow), it’s the first time that such event happens and i think that there is an high expectation by investors to see an increase in price, this is the main reason that let me think that this expected rise have already been discounted and when the halving block will happen it’s not excluded a serious drop.

In any case i’ll probably try a short term trade if the market retraces down to the previous resistance of 11.3$-11.5$ after the halving block date, if a more serious drop will take place i’ll stay out.

This is a short term view since the recent bottom at 9.74$, BTC/USD just broke an ascending triangle going above ~11.30$, i interpret this as a first sign of a weekly reversal, it’s too early to draw a final conclusion so if i dont see more bullishness in the upcoming days i remain stick with my bearish view.

If a new daily swing has started then the price range forecast should be 10.34$ – 12.40$, if this market will go above 11.6$ in the next days then i’ll consider a buy.

The recent adoption of bitcoin by WordPress it’s a very good news to improve the popularity of this currency but i’m not sure if it will have an impact on bitcoin prices in the short term.

This is a short term view of the last 25 days, BTC/USD completed as expected the rebound up to ~11.30$ and this week market kissed again that level without success, i think it will remain under it for the remaining part of this week and probably also the next one.

Price range forecast is 9.70$-11.60$, as you know I think that there are chance to see this market going down to 7$ 8$ but before it has to go under 9.70$ with a strong selling activity. For the time being i stay out from this market, i’ll abandon my bearish view of the market only if i see a strong break out of 11.60$ level.

For this week end i expect to see a modest drop down to 10.5$, eventually 10.2$.

This is a short term view of October,the market after a long weak phase spent at 11.8$ started with decent volume to rise.

I’ve talk about a maximum target of 12.8$ for this month (after the huge drop of first days of October) in the previous update, at this point is unlikely to break it , i’m more for a consolidation around 12$.

As you can see in the chart the net volume spiked showing that some investors are coming back in this market, i think that the fear of a collapse is fading away and it will not return if price stays above 10.6$ where i’ve also my monthly moving average (around 10.5$) is providing support.

If 10.5$ got broken then i think it is confirmed a reverse on the weekly chart and it might last some months but i’m confident that bitcoin will remain above 10$ for the upcoming months.

This is a daily chart of the last few days since the moderate drop from 12.68$ marked on the chart,  buyers slowly moved back into BTC/USD long positions.

I think that the correction is over and now i computed a new conservative target for october around 13.30$, but  it shouldn’t be impossible to touch the 13.7$-13.8$ price zone.

I expect this market to be supported in the 11$ price zone defined also by the monthly moving average and not only by the consideration i’ve made on the previous update about this price level. Looking the net volume on the monthly chart i think the picture is very  bullish despite the August quick shakeout, i see higher prices, probably 17$-18$  over the next few months.

We have just seen a 3 day break and the question is whether or not it is just the first stage of something bigger. It is hard to tell at this juncture because the at the moment the bitcoin has not even matched the size of the drop of last end of August when it dropped 1.54$, from 12.68$ top of 3 days ago it would give support around 11.14$ a bit below my initial stop of 11.95$.
If a bigger drop is indeed underway then i think it will be similar to the January-February 2012 break from 7$ to 4$ when the market lost 60% of its value, in this case a drop down to 7$ or so.

For the moment, i decided to lower my stop loss to 11.14$ and give the market few more days to see if it will rebounce from here, looking the net volume i don’t see a larger aggressive selling activity compared to the previous one of the 28 August drop (marked in the chart with the first rectangle).

This is a short term view of the last 20 days (the distance between two vertical dotted lines is one month), i added an hypothesis where this daily trend will probably meet strong time and price resistance.

After the first attempt down to 9.75$ sellers failed to take control of this market, from there a second daily uptrend started and quickly broke the 10.6$ intermediate resistance. I think that 12.65$ will provide some resistance to this trend and it should be reached around the end of this month.

I don’t have a clear idea of the long term trend because the weekly moving average is now flat,  a strong break out of my next target (12.65$) will confirm the integrity of the long term trend and it will force me again to open a long position.

To conclude, unlikely this market will drop to 7-8$ as i thought 2 weeks ago, i don’t see an aggressive selling activity for the moment, sellers probably need higher prices to show up.