XBT/USD weekly range.forecast $725-$870 | daily moving average is bulllish and main support is at VWAP near $580. XBTUSD continues to stay all the time above the first positive deviation line of the VWAP, a bullish behaviour.
In case of a strong price correction i’m looking at the $580 support as an interesting buying zone where to further increase my long-term position; position with a size of 3 units (150 btc) at an average price of $549.
Since May 2016 I’ve seen a strong Bitcoin price rally after the breakout of the $500 resistance.
“Move fast for profit regardless security and customer satisfaction” may be applied to companies but not for a true decentralized cryptocurrency like Bitcoin.
I want to thank Bitcoin Core for the very conservative approach to its development. Core has been doing a supreme job maintaining the reference client, making sure that the network is running smoothly and insuring that the 11 billions $ market cap doesn’t decline due to bugs in the software because of developers negligency like happened today to another altcoin.
Thanks again for doing a great job.
XBT/USD range till sunday $650-$770 | daily moving average is bulllish and main support is at VWAP near $540 but as i said earlier this week when the market is strong usually the first positive deviation line is very good as support, now at $650.
The odds now are for a retracement, i suggest to observe market behaviour around the alma moving average and first vwap dev.line both at around 650 dollars.
XBT/USD weekly range.forecast $610-$800 | daily moving average is firmly bulllish and main support is at VWAP near $520 although when the market is strong usually the first positive deviation line act as main support; now at $615.
In my previous weekly range update i was thinking that XBTUSD was going to add another 50$-60$ in the current up-cycle and it happened. Right now i’m observing market behaviour around the static resistance of $680, apparently XBTUSD is going to break this resistance and skip the scenario of a substantial price correction.
Aniway in case of a strong price correction i’m looking at the $520 support as an interesting buying zone where to buy the dip.
This is a simple monthly chart since Jan.2012, important facts are:
As i explained in past updates the midpoint or 50% it is one of the strongest and most important resistance/support level. The main trend is obviously up (at least so far) because the low around point 2 in the chart is above point 1 thus is legit to expect a new all time high if this market can break above the $680 static resistance.
Furthermore the fact that the two accumulation zones highlighted in the chart never overlap tell us that the underline long term trend is very strong and because of this i expect a new all time high in case of a strong breakout above $680.
This is a template i use for long term analysis with metatrader 4 platform, first i compute a price regression with 12 or 24 bars/months with a monthly chart then i compute supports and resistances. Dotted lines represents supports/resistances using the recent volatility of XBTUSD, non-dotted lines are levels computed using twice the value of recent bitcoin volatility.
We are exactly at the resistance and this is very interesting because in 1-2 months we will see if bitcoin long term trend is still up or not.
I have taken in account the log-normal distribution of price otherwise i’d have had very bad results in computing the levels, usually it is not required but when prices movements are so high you have to. What does it mean? It’s simple, before doing any calculation first compute the natural log of the price, do your stuff and last reexponentiate the data to have back the price chart with a linear scale.
This is why i do not recommend to use standard bollinger bands with bitcoin on a long term chart, you would have bad results, sometimes with the lower bollinger band going negative! clearly unrealistic.
XBT/USD weekly range.forecast $540-$650 | daily moving average is still bulllish after the strong spike. Support is at VWAP near $480. Volatility remains high togheter with RSI oscillator now at 92.
Although support is at VWAP near $480 i think that $540 should hold in case of a retracement.
I think that XBTUSD will probably add another 50$-60$ in the current up-cycle before a substantial correction takes place.
In case of a price correction i’m looking at the $480-$540 price range as an interesting buying zone although as i said before $540 should hold.
XBT/USD weekly range.forecast $495-$570 | daily moving average is bulllish after the strong spike. Support is at VWAP near $460. Volatility has increased and after an initial bearish trap XBTUSD rose well above the VWAP, RSI is high and it hadn’t been in overbought territory for a while this should increase the probability to see a retracement from here. Strong resistance is always at around $570.
Although support is at VWAP near $460 i think that $495 should hold in case of a retracement.
XBTUSD touched my weekly resistance at around $480, i think this resistance is temporary and considering the huge amount of volatility increase there are chance to see higher prices ahead. It’s time to switch to a weekly chart to better understand where is the first decent resistance .
Above you can see a weekly chart of XBTUSD using an average of 5 exchanges. I plotted the bollinger bands and highlighted 3 breakout bars on point 1,3,4.
XBTUSD did a first breakout bar above the upper bollinger band on mid July 2015 (point 1 on the chart) but immediately turned back inside the bar, typical bearish pattern. At this point a bearish reaction started and ended at the lower bollinger band (point 2 on the chart) .
From here the true movement started with a clean breakout bar (Nov. 2015 point 3 on the chart).
Now we are seeing the same breakout bar (point 4 on the chart) but i can’t say yet if it is a legit or a fake one. Judging from what happened since Jan of this year with XBTUSD doing a long sequence of higher lows i’m tempted to say that this market is strong and probably it will break above 500 dollars; the next 1-2 weeks are crucial to see if this breakout is valid or not.
In january i was telling you that a good resistance for the whole year was $760 and it is still valid, there is 1% possibility to move above $760, 5% to go above $630 and 30% to pass $550. In case of a strong move above $500 the possible targets are these.
This is bitcoin 1 hour price action chart since May 21, i labeled in the chart 3 points where the R-Squared indicator topped above the 0.8 thresold, i explained in this update how R-Square works. Yellow line is the ALMA moving average while below the price chart we have the r-squared indicator, classic stochastic oscillator and Chaikin Volatility indicator, last two with standard values. It is interesting to notice that on the bottom we have had a volatility peak, oversold stochastic oscillator, r-square above 0.8 and the price touching the lower support of my regression price channel. These are all good signs that may 
signal a turnaround in the trend. As i explained in a previous update about r-square when this indicator cross the 0.8 thresold signaling a possible end of the current price swing (up or down) doesn’t necessary mean that the price will reverse and fall, as you can see in point C of the chart, why is this happening? Because if the overall trend is strong all the price corrections in an uptrend sometimes are not strong enough to push the price down therefore we have situations where the price stays flat or reduce its speed without doing a price reversal. At point B in the chart you can see that both r-squared and stochastic oscillator were signalling a reversal but XBTUSD stayed flat or sideway.
Furthermore the Chaikin volatility indicator can give you further information when to trade or not, here it indicated very well an intraday bottom (hopefully it could be also a bottom on the daily chart as i speculated in the previous update) again at point A.
Possible strategies are to buy when there is a retracement after a strong reaction, in this case wait a situation like the one at point A, wait the retracement after point B and buy at the subsequent price reaction to the upside to end your trade at point C where the R-Squared saturated above the 0.8 thresold. In this case we are talking about 2-2.5 usd profit for each btc traded, not much if you consider the high spread and fees charged by bitcoin exchanges, an old reason why i don’t trade intraday this market yet.
XBT/USD weekly range.forecast at $425-$460 | daily moving average is bearish. Resistance is at VWAP near $445. Volatility increased but i think that we are seeing a bear trap, i expect an upmove that will carry XBTUSD just above the VWAP, RSI is low and it hadn’t been in oversold territory for a while this should increase the probability to see a rebounce from here. Strong resistance is always at around $480.
Generally speaking i think that there are no reasons to see the recent drop as a dump, in my opinion bitcoin fundamentals are looking strong and there is a lot to be bullish about this summer with segwit coming and halving.
Italian version of the update here
This is an attempt to forecast where the next big movement will end of this altcoin, an altcoin that recently is getting lot of unjustified attention from the bitcoin community. I don’t know if people is bored of bitcoin and is trying to pursuit a “get rich quick scheme” pumping their bitcoins in this altcoin, aniway it is not the purpose of this article to prove it or not.
Here there is the weekly chart with logscale for the price axis.I highlighted the first big up movement and the subsequent price drop, a perfect 62% fibonacci retracement down from the top to 0.015 btc/unit. Assuming that the current bullish movement will be of the same size of the previous one using a logarithmic scale the target should be at 0.135 Btc/Unit. There would be price retracements for sure before reaching such an optimistic target therefore a more likely long term top could be the point half way between our initial target and the bottom used as a starting point for our forecast. As indicated in the chart this potential resistance level is around 0.047 Btc/unit. IMO it would be a decent point where to open a short position because it is above the previous high of 0.035 Btc/unit and in a strong uptrend i’d prefer to avoid to open a short position from a lower high. In any case it is better to confirm the trade with a bearish signal with an oscillator of your choice.
XBT/USD weekly range.forecast unchanged at $435-$460 | daily moving average is flat. Strong support is at VWAP near $435. Volatility is low and should increase soon and in case of another upmove strong resistance is at $485 but at the moment this market is having difficulties to pass my previous level at $460.
Bitcoin Trading Ideas, Analysis 