This is the chart from the $382 low of December 18, 2013; the VWAP is calculated starting from that bottom. It’s interesting to see how the RSI buy signal of December 22  is to be interpreted as a nice buy signal because the price was above the VWAP and it was forming an higher low.
The bearish signal of yesterday from $734 came after an higher high at $765 compared to the previous High at $720, i can conclude that the short term the trend is up but not so strong because of weak buying volume activity.

However i’m not much convinced to open long positions right now because I don’t see a strong positive rate for the volume activity, the net volume improved a bit and it’s almost neutral, a sign that now there is more balance between buyers and sellers, but we are certainly not at the levels seen during the strong uptrend of last November. I’m not saying that it’s forbidden to trade in the short term but you have to be extra cautious opening long positions when the volume is not supporting too much the rise.

Thanks for voting, but 62% interested to see updates on altcoins is not enough for me, if it would have been 80%-90% i’d have not hesitated to add updates about big altcoins like Litecoin or Namecoin. Sorry guys but for now i stay focused on Bitcoin only.

Yesterday I sold because the price hans’t be able to get through the  VWAP resistance at $630, then it started to fall and after a confirmed bearish RSI signal I closed my position.

During the night (for my timezone GMT +1) there was a bullish signal always from the RSI oscillator very interesting confirmed by the fact that the drop from $ 625 has found support on the 50% retracement of the first bullish swing ($ 382 -> $ 625).

Today it’s interesting to see if bitcoin will be able to exceed the volume moving average now placed at $614.

I’ll be synthetic and almost telegraphic, the reasons that led me to believe in a possible reversal of the market are:
1) An rsi divergence was forming, a bullish divergence occurs when the underlying security makes a lower low and RSI forms a higher low and this happened shortly after (pointed out in the chart with dotted line)
2) Price was close to the important level of $650,  it bottomed out at $651.54 @bitstamp
3) 667$ was the first negative deviation line using the 4 hours chart

Normally i do not publish on this blog trades so dangerous, completely against the trend and with an high level of volatility, because I am aware that many of you who follow me do not have enough experience to be able to operate in such situations without making mistakes but this time i’ve done an exception. Possible target is the short term average at $780 that is providing resistance, once there i’ll decide what to do. Support level remains at $650.

After the initial flash crash down to $542 sellers failed to take control of this market that is currently holding just below VWAP computed using last 15 days of data; the bitcoin price reaction from the bottom has been slightly bullish (price is holding above midpoint level of $766 of the range $542-$990 that represent the first upswing from the $542 bottom) and i believe that we can consider the recent bottom an important one, at least in the short term although i’m not sure if there is enough fuel to move above VWAP at $885 and enter bullish territory.

All these considerations are for the immediate short term, for the long term i’m not completely sure about the direction of the next bitcoin move.

Possible weekly range for Bitstamp is $720-$970 and for BTCchina 4400-5900 CNY.

Not much is happening these days, BTC/USD is spending time above $840 and volatility is dropping (not necessarily a bad sign). I have shown in the graph two trading opportunities, one for a short selling (for who trades at bitfinex) and a buy signal. If the price movement is at least $20-$30 it’s possible to have a decent profit, fee included.

It is true that looking a four hours chart the price is declining with a series of lower Highs and Lows, therefore i should conclude that from now on it has to fall more and establish a new lower low under $542, logic conclusion. Well when it is too obvious in speculation there is always a surprise around the corner; it might drop a bit from here but i think that it’ll stay above my important level of $650.

I’ve added a moving average to the fast RSI i use, it helps in filtering out bad trade signals.

The situation is congested, I resetted the VWAP  lines using the last two days to have a picture for the very short term. The RSI oscillator is also congested, it not being overbought or oversold.
In these cases, you have to wait for something to happen to understand what the market wants to do. A possible trading strategy may be to buying bitcoins at the break-up of the VWAP at $ 910 with a profit taking around $ 940, a quick trade for a small profit.

This market is stabilizing above the important midpoint level of 650$ and as long as it stays above it i’m willing to believe that it is slowly preparing itself for a further upmove, probably to $1300-$1400.

Bitcoin turns down from the expected resistance level of the previous update. This occurs after price action rose dramatically (around $400  in total) in a substantial bullish correction extending back to the Dec 7 low just above $500. Next downside support target resides around the key $810 price region near the volume average, which is an important support/resistance as explained many times. To the upside, in the event of a breakout above first deviation line, the next upside target to watch resides around the price region of the previous double top ($1150).

Again, a combination of price and time indications has given a nice selling opportunity at $960(rsi sell short signal and first deviation line resistance).