As you can see from the attached chart on the left BTC/USD at gox is again probing the static resistance at around 147$.
It is clear from the chart that an ascending triangle pattern is forming with a projected target of 165$ that it’s exactly my long term target i’ve spoken about in this update . I think there is a chance to breakout September top at 149$ and reach 165$ or so during October.

I’m particulary happy of the recent news of a private Bitcoin Investment Trust for accredited investorst launched by Secondmarket, this might affect price significantly next year. Unlike the ETF that the Winklevoss twins have been trying to do, this one is only available to accredited investors and so it doesn’t have to pass the same exploratory process that a wider ETF would need to go through complex regulatory procedures. I can’t be sure but i smell a new big wave (the third after 2011 and 2013) of investors coming in 2014-2015, why? Well the bull market is coming to an end and instead of holding overvalued stocks many investors will eventualy explore new kind of investments like cryptocurrencies and Secondmarket Bitcoin Trust could be an easy gateway to invest in bitcoin.

Not much have changed in the last 7 days, this month tendency is obviously flat and not what i expect, basically the market is not going up as I would have hoped, I unfortunately bought on a false breakout of a strong resistance level and since then the market has been flat.

Short term picture is now a bit bearish because we are under this month VWAP (located at 137$) but still above the support at 125$. Before closing the position definitely i’ll wait to see BTC/USD under 125$ for at least one day.

After my previous update this market has recovered from the static support at 125$ back to 141$. With this reaction i’ve to conclude that it might move a bit higher over the coming weeks to my long term target of at least 168$. In addition, prices are holding above the short term VWAP and at least in the short term the situation remains bullish despite some bearish bias of my last update when i was a bit skeptic to see prices above 125$.

First resistance for this month is 147$ and support always at 126$ or so, if BTC/USD stays above VWAP at 137$ i’m not much worried for my trade opened at 140$.

I’d like to conclude this quick update talking about the complicated situation at Mt.Gox.
Frankly speaking i’m a bit worried of the lack of transparency and communication from MtGox, with the last official statement dated August 5, more then 40 days without any official news about the impossibility for who is requesting a wire transfer withdrawal from his account to be completed in a decent time frame and for “decent” i mean days and not months like now.
I have a friend that has been waiting so far more than 3 months since his initial withdrawal request, this is not acceptable, at a first glance i should say that this is a criminal behaviour but i don’t know all the details of what is going on at MtGox.
Aniway, the paradox is that this problem will increase the pressure on prices because the only way to withdraw money from MtGox is to buy bitcoins, this of course explain the price difference with btc-e and bitstamp exchanges. I dunno how it will end but one thing is sure, volume activity is dropping at MtGox and increasing on other exchanges and this is not so bad after all.

BTC/USD dropped down to the first support zone i’ve forecasted in my previous update, i’m continuing plotting the VWAP average and deviation lines since the last important bottom of July 5, as long as the price stays above the VWAP the cycle is still in the upward phase and no serious retracements are expected.

I think that probably the static support at 123$ will not hold and BTC/USD is going to retest the VWAP slightly above 100$ where a decent buying opportunity will materialize. As i’ve said buying at the breakout of the second price deviation line of the VWAP is a risky business thus i opened the trade with only 50 bitcoins leaving to me the option to average down my position once this retracement is completed.

UPDATE

The market is reacting from 125$, so probably my skepticism to see BTC/USD going under the static support at 123$ was a bit unjustified; for who follow on twitter my weekly range forecast  i revise this week range estimate to 125$-145$.