Month: August 2013

Long Term Update: At resistance

On By CryptoAdvisorIn Long Term Trading4 Comments

BTC/USD is heating up again and trending up nicely during this month, i think that showing you guys a chart covering all this year will help us to understand better where bitcoin is going in the mid-long term.

UploadImageBitcoin is near a strong resistance, the long term first deviation line of the VWAP and i think it will be hard to break this level, currently around 134$, but the long term trend is pushing up and eventually in September/October we might see BTC/USD well above 134$. Short Term support is at 115$, that is an intermediate top of June 21, now support.

For the time being i don’t buy, i want to see if there is enough fuel in the tank to pass 134$.

As a side note, i’m not much happy of the large spread that there is between Mtgox and Bistamp, it’s probably related to withdrawal issues not yet resolved with Mtgox. Overall this is not good and it is not excluded the risk to collapse from panic withdrawals with the consequence of a flash crash. If MtGox is going to collapse it would be very bad for bitcoin, at least in the short term. By then, hopefully new and better exchanges should arise.

Short Term Update

On By CryptoAdvisorIn Short Term Trading1 Comment

UploadImageNot much has changed since my last update, BTC/USD is still above the short term VWAP and in the short term my bias remains mildly bullish despite since the beginning of june all were claiming as the truth their forecast of a new crash coming, a repetition of the 2011 pump and dump scheme or the collapse of the bitcoin economy:)

As a contrarian believer i consider this bearish crowd behavior among investors a confirmation to the fact that we are not going to see a repetition of the 2011 extreme bear market, instead a consolidation around 80$-100$.

In the meantime I think support beneath the market stands near the 80$-85$ support zone and it might be tested during this month; it could be a decent buying opportunity for all the investors interested to join the long term ride. Keep in mind that before reaching the support area at 85$ there is the average at 94$ providing good support and considering the current low volatility environment  it’ll not be easy to break that price level. No one is selling aggressively right now, this means we need higher prices to see bears coming.