Month: July 2013

Update: Mtgox

On By CryptoAdvisorIn Long Term Trading, Short Term Trading4 Comments

UploadImageAfter my previous update this market has rallied to this month at around 100$. I thought in my last update that the first level to test was 81$ instead BTC/USD reacted and slowly rised up to ~100$, thus i’ve to conclude that it might move a bit higher over the coming weeks with 120$ as a possible target. In addition, prices are holding above the short term VWAP and at least in the short term the situation remains bullish despite the bearish bias of my last update.

Long Term View

UploadImageLong Term situation is interesting with BTC/USD standing around the long term VWAP at 99-100$. Aniway as long as bitcoin stays at or under 100$ i prefer to don’t open a long trade although the weekly moving average is trying to reverse to the upside giving the possibility to see a long term intermediate top at 115-120$. At the same time the bearish scenario for August is not yet excluded and a violation of the 80$ short term support could mean lower prices. So, for the time being i’ve decided to stay out from this market till i see a more clear sign of bullish activity.

Short Term Update

On By CryptoAdvisorIn Short Term Trading1 Comment

UploadImageSince my last update bitcoin tried to reach 122$ but it stopped rising  at ~104  just below the first price deviation line. I’m not happy about the missed move up to 120$ that i was hoping to see , once i saw BTC/USD failing miserably to go above 108$ i’ve immediately understood that there wasn’t enough fuel for a serious reversal; indeed, since that top, bitcoin stalled under 100$ and then dropped 10$ today. At this point i think that the downtrend resumed and the first level to test is 81$.

I continue to recommend to you guys to don’t invest at the moment, for who is already invested for the long term as long as BTC/USD stays above previous long term top (32$) it’s all fine but, for a better understanding of the long term outlook, i prefer to wait August that has been always a thougth month with high volatility; in 2011 a big drop, in 2012 the infamous pirate40 sell-off, thus it is not excluded a serious bottom next month.

Short Term Update: Daily Chart

On By CryptoAdvisorIn Short Term Trading5 Comments

UploadImageThe market is finally showing some bullishness but it is not enough for me to say that it is a long term reverse. After doing a bottom at 65$, just above the long term support i’ve indicated in my last update, it reacted nicely up to the resistance price zone i’ve previously forecasted, around 90$. I think that BTC/USD might reach 95$ and find strong resistance by the short term and long term VWAP, both standing there.

I’ve to add that my weekly moving average is at 97$, so it’s pretty normal a pull back up to it before resuming the downtrend. To conclude  i’m remain bearish and only strong buying pressure above 95$ would convince me of the contrary.

In case of a strong break out and the come back to triple digits the first resistance is around the first deviation line of my short term VWAP, it’s located at 108$ and then at 122$ the second one. So, first a break out of 95$ and then reach 108$, subsequent pullback for a retest of 100$ and then 120$ might be the first steps for a long term reversal.

OFF TOPIC
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Long Term Update: Daily Chart at MtGox

On By CryptoAdvisorIn Long Term Trading3 Comments

UploadImageBTC/USD fell under a mid term VWAP, at this point it is pretty obvious that bitcoin is entering in a bear market but i think it will not repeat the extreme drop seen in 2011 (as i stated in a previous update such a drop will mean a bottom around 18$).

Abundance of mined bitcoin are flooding the market and there is not enough supply to stay above the VWAP (now at 97$). A positive aspect is that at least the VWAP is not trending lower but it’s flat at the moment. The first decent support is at the first deviation line, around 60$ and i don’t expect the price to fall under it this July. Resistance in the short term is now 90$, that it was previous support in my last short term update. To conclude, i do not recommend to buy at the moment; eventually at 60$ if the market rebounce i might decide to open a long position, with extreme caution because  grasping a falling knife is always a risky business.