BTC/USD completed as expected the rebound up to 12.40$ i think that it will remain under it for the remaining part of this week. In my previous update i’ve said that i’d have considered a buy above 11.3$, well i’m not too much convinced for a mid term up movement because of the upcoming block halving date (it’s expected to happen tomorrow), it’s the first time that such event happens and i think that there is an high expectation by investors to see an increase in price, this is the main reason that let me think that this expected rise have already been discounted and when the halving block will happen it’s not excluded a serious drop.

In any case i’ll probably try a short term trade if the market retraces down to the previous resistance of 11.3$-11.5$ after the halving block date, if a more serious drop will take place i’ll stay out.

This is a short term view since the recent bottom at 9.74$, BTC/USD just broke an ascending triangle going above ~11.30$, i interpret this as a first sign of a weekly reversal, it’s too early to draw a final conclusion so if i dont see more bullishness in the upcoming days i remain stick with my bearish view.

If a new daily swing has started then the price range forecast should be 10.34$ – 12.40$, if this market will go above 11.6$ in the next days then i’ll consider a buy.

The recent adoption of bitcoin by WordPress it’s a very good news to improve the popularity of this currency but i’m not sure if it will have an impact on bitcoin prices in the short term.

 

This is a short term view of the last 25 days, BTC/USD completed as expected the rebound up to ~11.30$ and this week market kissed again that level without success, i think it will remain under it for the remaining part of this week and probably also the next one.

Price range forecast is 9.70$-11.60$, as you know I think that there are chance to see this market going down to 7$ 8$ but before it has to go under 9.70$ with a strong selling activity. For the time being i stay out from this market, i’ll abandon my bearish view of the market only if i see a strong break out of 11.60$ level.

For this week end i expect to see a modest drop down to 10.5$, eventually 10.2$.