This is a weekly view since January 2012 Top at 7.22$. It is visible the long period of accumulation spent at 5$ during the first half of this year, the crash of August with the old top that acted as support at 7$, in the second pane of the chart there is the net volume and it’s clearly visible the selling activity hasn’t been all that dramatic.

It is very important  for who is interested to stay invested in bitcoins for the long haul  to stay above the 7$ level, i’m moving back to my old plan of a possible retest at 7$ where i expect to see buyers coming back in the form of a strong positive net volume on a weekly basis.

I included as usual a forecast for a mid term bottom, assuming a weekly correction of maximum 20-25 weeks for this downswing and it will be hard for BTC/USD to go below 7$ by the end of this year. I’d like to add that the secondary lower top at 13$ may have marked a bearish divergence on some oscillators i use which could lead to a prolonged but not extreme downward movement, eventually down to 7$.

For the short term btc/usd i’ve been too much optimistic on my previous udpate, short term support at 10.5$ didn’t worked and after a quick sell-off i think btc/usd is rebounding up to the 11$-11.3$ price zone where it will probably resume the drop; so for who is interested in a quick but risky profit it might be worth the risk to buy now, as i said many times i post relatively safe trades here and for now i’ll wait further developments before thinking to open another trade.

If you have any questions, please feel free to ask leaving a comment or writing me on twitter.