This is a daily chart of the last few days since the moderate drop from 12.68$ marked on the chart,  buyers slowly moved back into BTC/USD long positions.

I think that the correction is over and now i computed a new conservative target for october around 13.30$, but  it shouldn’t be impossible to touch the 13.7$-13.8$ price zone.

I expect this market to be supported in the 11$ price zone defined also by the monthly moving average and not only by the consideration i’ve made on the previous update about this price level. Looking the net volume on the monthly chart i think the picture is very  bullish despite the August quick shakeout, i see higher prices, probably 17$-18$  over the next few months.

We have just seen a 3 day break and the question is whether or not it is just the first stage of something bigger. It is hard to tell at this juncture because the at the moment the bitcoin has not even matched the size of the drop of last end of August when it dropped 1.54$, from 12.68$ top of 3 days ago it would give support around 11.14$ a bit below my initial stop of 11.95$.
If a bigger drop is indeed underway then i think it will be similar to the January-February 2012 break from 7$ to 4$ when the market lost 60% of its value, in this case a drop down to 7$ or so.

For the moment, i decided to lower my stop loss to 11.14$ and give the market few more days to see if it will rebounce from here, looking the net volume i don’t see a larger aggressive selling activity compared to the previous one of the 28 August drop (marked in the chart with the first rectangle).

This is a short term view of the last 20 days (the distance between two vertical dotted lines is one month), i added an hypothesis where this daily trend will probably meet strong time and price resistance.

After the first attempt down to 9.75$ sellers failed to take control of this market, from there a second daily uptrend started and quickly broke the 10.6$ intermediate resistance. I think that 12.65$ will provide some resistance to this trend and it should be reached around the end of this month.

I don’t have a clear idea of the long term trend because the weekly moving average is now flat,  a strong break out of my next target (12.65$) will confirm the integrity of the long term trend and it will force me again to open a long position.

To conclude, unlikely this market will drop to 7-8$ as i thought 2 weeks ago, i don’t see an aggressive selling activity for the moment, sellers probably need higher prices to show up.