This is a short term view of the last 30 days,the market is still  fighting to go stay above 4.7  and to break above 5.1$. I’d like to see an increase in volume activity and the BTC/USD going above 5.3$ but at the same time the drop of volatility reduce the risk of this trade that i opened 1 month ago at 5.06$, at the moment it’s a stall in a long congested phase from 4.7$ to 5.3$

As you can see in the chart even the net volume is dropping signaling that buying in the last 3 days  is going out of steam, i think that a new drop to 4.8$ is possible before rebouncing again; in any case for who want to give a try i recommend to apply a stop loss under 4.7$ and sell at the resistance around 5.2$-5.3$. For this week the range is the same of the previous week , support at 4.7$ and resistance at 5.3$

When the volatility is so low most of the time is very difficult to have a profit following the indication of an oscillator like the one i use because the underlying noise is equal or even higher then the signal; you have to wait for an exploding volume and a rising price, two important factors that statistically may lead to further advancing prices like what we’ve seen happening last January.

Definitely a very boring period for short term speculators but i remain bullish for long term.

 

This is a short term view of the last 35 days (the distance between two vertical dotted lines is one month), i added the Keltner Channel to the price; basically Keltner channel is a technical analysis indicator showing a central moving average line plus channel lines at a distance above and below, i properly set up the parameters in SierraChart to replicate as much as possible the daily range estimates that i publish every day on my Twitter channel, range estimates that are computed with a more complex approach already explained in one of my old posts here, more infos are also availables under the technical section of this blog.

After the first attempt to break the upper channel line at 5.4$ the market is now struggling to stay around 5$. Despite this congestion phase i’m not going to close my short term trade and my stoploss is always under 3.8$ for now.

As you can see in the chart even the net volume activity is dropping signaling that volatility is very low during this consolidation phase. Usually there are three types of consolidation: a ledge, up to ten bars; a congestion, from ten to twenty bars and trading ranges, with more then twenty bars. At the moment there are seven bars of consolidation and probably within one week the price will break somewhere above or below the current up/down channel line or at least it will retest the 4.7$ support or 5.3$ resistance line.

It’s hard to say on which direction BTC/USD will break but considering the bullish underlying trend i’m tempted to say that this consolidation will resolve in an upside breakout of the upperline.