I think we are seeing a correction in a weekly uptrend, if the BTC/USD will drop under 4.7$ the picture might change a little, in this case we will see probably the bitcoin moving sideways in the 4$-5$ zone

Judging the last bar of this weekly chart net volume i dont see a great selling pressure and i’m not worried for my short term trade, at the moment i’m still bullish.

The weekly moving average turned slightly upward again after nine weeks of weakness, the BTC/USD after a strong bottom at 3.8$ is fighting to break through~5.1$.

 I’ve seen an increase in the buying pressure this week but i say again that without a proper breakout of the 5.1-5.2$ zone i dont think that the trend will reverse again to the upside going above the previous top at 7.2$, but at least the sequence of rising lows of the last four weeks is a positive note.

I want to do a consideration about the inflow/outflow of money during the recent strong upmove and the correction of the last weeks; during the upswing from the november low to january top more then 700k usd has been put in this market, while during the correction around 2 mln usd has been extracted, this is a lot of money and despite of that huge selling pressure the market retraced ~50% (from 7.2$ to 3.8$) without a collapse to the 2$ zone, usually a 50% retracement is a strong level of support.
But what does it mean? well i think that despite the fact that so much money have been extracted in the last 3 months the BTC/USD is showing great resilience and i think that a new wave of investors kicked in for the long term thus giving to the 4$ price level a great importance and it shouldn’t be violated this year. I think also that at MtGox there is enough liquidity to go double digit during the second part of the year, my guess.

This is a weekly view since october 2011. It is visible the November low at 1.94$ and the recent top at 7.2$, in the second pane of the chart there is the net volume and it’s clearly visible how it moved from a negative situation to a flat one, after the drop from 7.2$ to 3.8$ the picture now looks mixed.

The weekly ALMA moving average has now a downward slope, but less intense.I think that the underlying long term is still intact, despite three months of high selling pressure the price isn’t  dropped too much. It is very important  to see buyers coming back in the form of a strong positive net volume on a monthly basis (now still negative since january top) otherwise i dont think the 3.8$ will hold and considering that the april-may period has been very volatile last year and we could face rising volatility in the upcoming months there’s good chance that the congestion area from 4$ to 5$ will not last much.