In the last update i said that i was going to buy again if the BTC/USD would have rised to 5.4$ and fall a bit; well it it happened but during the recoil phase of the cycle it dropped too much down to 4.5$, i’m not going to buy if this weakness persist, moreover the weekly moving average is still pointing down due to the recent drop to 4.5$.

I’ll remain out of the market for now, i want to see also a positive rate of change for the slower weekly moving average before buying; the overall picture is still bullish but uncertain in the short term.

This is an 8 hours chart of last 30 days since the moderate drop to 3.8$ and the subsequent ascending triangle that is developing. I marked on the chart the two moments where small cycles started, on point 1 and 2, on point 3 a new cycle  might start carrying the btc towards the static resistance, about 5$.

I think i’m going to buy again if the BTC/USD will go through 5$ during the next thrust of the cycle reaching maybe 5.4$, during the recoil phase of the cycle it will probably retrace without going down 5$, that could be the right moment to enter in the market with a long position. It’s an hypothesis, let’see if it will materialize.

At the moment, during this ascending triangle the cumulative net volume is slightly negative (~ -32000 btc) , in other words around 110,000$ have been extracted from the market  but right now the bid size of the book is stronger compared to the ask size and with enough money present to move the market to at least 5.5$ in case of a break out of 5$.

Thank you guys and see you at the next update.