The weekly moving average is acting
now as resistance, the BTC/USD after a strong bottom at 3.8$ rebounced exactly to my average at ~5.2$. I’ve seen a huge increase in the selling pressure during that bottom as it is visibile in the long negative net volume bar.
Without a proper breakout of the 5.2-5.4$ zone i dont think that the trend will reverse again to the upside going above the previous top at 7.2$, consequentally i expect for march a consolidation around these price levels (3.5-5.4$).
This is a weekly view since october 2011. It is visible the November low at 1.94$ and the recent top at 7.2$, in the second pane of the chart there is the net volume and it’s clearly visible how it moved from a positive situation to a negative one. The weekly ALMA moving average has now a downward slope, confirming this phase as corrective.
I think that the underlying long term is still intact, despite a month of selling pressure the price isn’t crashed to 2$ or even lower, i’ll evaluate to open another short term trade when i’ll have bullish indications from the 4hours and the daily chart.
I was again waiting a move to 5$ but the bitcoin reacted to 5.8$ after a situation of oversold rsi oscillator and negative net volume indicating exhaustion of the previous downswing.
In the same bar it touched 5.8$ and then a shakedown took place carrying the bitcoin to 5.3$ with considerable overall volume (~160000 btc), i’ll consider this as a reference bottom for the short term. Resistance for today and probably the upcoming weekend around 6.4$
I was expecting a drop to 5$ but instead the bitcoin jumped quickly to 6$, since then it slowly dropped back to 5.5$-5.7$. I still think it could develop a bottom at 5$ and then rebound quickly back to the 5.5$-6.0$ zone.
I attached here a 4 hour chart, it is visible the rsi oscillator that is in oversold territory with negative net volume. This let me think that a quick bottom might develop followed by a strong bounce probably to retest the resistance levels at 6-6.2$
In the last three weeks we have had a negative outflow of money warning us that sellers are selling good quantities of bitcoin after it has recently spiked in price from 2$ to 7$ with a great deal of capital appreciation. Despite this selling pressure with overall high volume the prices are still well above the recent low of november at 1.94$; i interpret this behaviour as bullish for long term.
Bitcoin Trading Ideas, Analysis 