I think that the narrowing of the daily range of the last 5-6 days  it is a sign of exhaustion, especially since it has happened after the day the market just put in a selling  bar with high volume (~200000 bitcoins) on 9 september

As long as the  4$ bottom will hold i think that a bounce to 8.5$ or so will materialize in the upcoming weeks. At 7.5$ there is  my weekly moving average that so far worked very well, a penetration of that moving average will be a good sign of improvement for the long term trend. Thus i recommend to open a long term trade only after a clear breakout of 7.5$ using 4-4.5$ as stop loss.