BTC/USD failed to breakout above 12$ and if it is going to stay above 10.50$ then a new attempt  to attack the 12$ resistance is possible.
The inverse fisher Rsi oscillator is still overbought and so the short term rally is still intact.

About the NY conference, i think there will be a time lag of  2-3 weeks before some effect on prices show up. It was a good event and the presenters did a great job, we need many conferences like this in the upcoming months if we want to see a bullish autumn.

I already explained in the past that  once an ascending triangle breakout occurs the most common price target is generally set to be equal to the entry price plus the vertical height of the triangle, in this case 12$ plus ~5$ equal 17$.

Looking the 4 hours chart here on the left i expect the breakout to occur in the next 48-72 hours; if not then the outlook provided by my elliot wave software will be right again, this outlook has always been bearish on the longer time frames after the 32$ top in june (more info to come on the next long term update).

At the moment I am not very impressed by recent bullish action since it was expected after a huge sell off, it is a normal bounce. I’m curious to see if the bitcoin conference currently held in NY will attract new investors so to ignite a new strong rally in september, or at least to break in the short term that ascending triangle pattern.

BTC/USD after a 50% retracement to the 9$ support rebounced nicely up to the resistance at 12$. As indicated in the chart i’ve my Alma weekly moving average at 11.93$, in the last six weeks the BTC/USD has never been able to stay above it, thus this average is showing to be a reliable indicator for the long term. A breakout of this average could be the first warning for a long term reverse of the actual downtrend.

Finally, I should like to say a word or two on Tradehill, this exchange was born as a valid alternative to MtGox but so far it failed to meet expectations. Why? well because if you look the daily volume activity it is not growing, always beetween 1000 and 2000 bitcoins exchanged every day on average; numbers never lie.

Mtgox is and will remain the leading exchange for a long time ahead.

BTC/USD as usual is very volatile when large bitcoin holders enter/exit the market. In around 72 hours it moved from 5.75$ to 12$, the break out of my today range estimate (above 9-9.5$) is good but the overall long term picture is still bearish until the market show me the contrary. Looking my previous post, the weekly moving average is at 12$ and it will not be easy to pass it.

As i said in a couple of old posts the 9$ was my long term reference support, the fact that it quickly recovered that support could let me think that the recent drop down 9$ was only a selling climax. BTC/USD should stay above 9$ for the next 24-48 hours, possibly with a quick test of 7.5$ ; lower bound of today range estimate is at 6.2$ but i remain optimistic that the 7.5-9$ zone will hold.