Cycle, Primary, Intermediate and Minor wave degrees are all pointing down, it is still a sell or stay out of the market advice and nothing’s changed much since my first elliott wave outlook . The recent drop under 13$ is a confirmation of this bearish situation.

As i said, now four consecutive wave degrees show a clear NEGATIVE trend, the conservative target of 11.50$ has not yet been reached but as more and more wave degrees shown a negative trend the probability of a meltdown increases considerably, even down to the secondary target at about 10$.
For the Elliott Wave theory, this is a very long term signal since it starts with the Cycle wave degree followed by the Primary and Intermediate wave degrees. The typical wave degree for the medium-long term investor is the intermediate one, which is currently pushing the price down to 11.50$. 

I’ll be a buyer when all this bearishness will evaporate after an important bottom probably under 11$ and with a confirmation from the moving average i use and the oscillator (still oversold).

Despite the fact that btc/usd has broken my long term downtrend line the overall picture remains weak. We could have seen the first shy attempt of a major trend reversal but it’s not enough, for who has experience of elliott wave analisys we have all the major waves inherent to a long term investment horizon pointing down (primary, intermediate and minor wave degrees).  The indications i’m giving in this update apply to longer term investors for a price moves of possibly 30% or more, since Primary, Intermediate and Minor Wave degrees are all DOWN. The most certain price target is the target of the Minor wave degree, which is in wave 3, at 14.2$, normally also the target of the next higher wave degree could be reached at 13.6$, which is in wave 2.

Instead, looking for a possible target for the Primary time frame , we are in a wave 3 and the first target is at 11.80$.

It’s a good sign that all these targets are above the long term static support placed at 9$.

The BTC/USD bounced nicely from recent low at 11$, it is breaking the long discending trendline i’ve drawn. Personally i wouldn’t open a long term trade only on a temporary break out of a descending trendline; despite the good volume seen during the current bounce i’ll prefer to wait before abandoning my first scenario of an important test of the 9$ long term support;  in any case if i see strength above 16.75$ i’ll evaluate a buy on a break out of a strong level i compute as usual.

The USD/BTC  is falling, following a descending trendline that is connecting all the way down the last two weeks sequence of lower highs. So far the 13$ level is providing support but i dont think it will hold the price for too long, as long term support i like the 9$ level that was an important previous resistance now of course support.

That descending trendline will meet the 9$ level around next 20 July, so at that date or before the usd/btc is going to test this fundamental level. I think that only a major shock will allow the development of an important low where to begin again a new season of rising prices and it will not touch the 9$ support for then simply bouncing from it, i expect a rise in volatility and strong volume around it that might allow to buy during a strong and fast dip under 9$. Usually a buying opportunities in a bull market generally arise when the market drops below its 50 day moving average (13$) but remains above its 200 day moving average (4$ ). I think just such an opportunity might lies ahead with this upcoming test of the 9$ level.