XBT/USD weekly range $ 550-$ 620 | ALMA daily moving average is slightly bearish and the main resistance for now is always the VWAP at $ 620.
I think the cross XBTUSD will remain below $ 620 this week with a second resistance at about $ 690. Volatility has stabilized. The weekly forecast is flat, i don’t expect a break above $620 or below $550.
The average of the RSI oscillator turned upward and is giving some bullish indications but only a breakout above $ 620 would confirm a bullish scenario.
XBT / USD weekly range $ 495- $ 640 | ALMA daily moving average is still bearish and the main resistance is the VWAP which adjusted to about $ 640 after the flash crash caused by Bitfinex.
I think the cross XBTUSD will remain below $ 640 this week with a second resistance at about $ 715. Volatility after the peak of last week is now stabilizing. The weekly forecast remains bearish, I think we will continue to see the bitcoin below the VWAP to $ 640. The actual price rebound could already be exhausted, if so then i expect a retest of the $565 price level.
The average of RSI oscillator is turning upward but has not yet given a bullish signal, it is at 26 and below the threshold of 30 that identifies the oversold zone.
Because of bitfinex exchange going offline i’m moving back to using bitstamp data.
This is a template i use with metatrader 4 where you can see a price regression channel. Yellow line is the same average i use on sierrachart, ALMA moving average.
The dotted deviation lines are calculated using the volatility derived from the average true range indicator. The solid deviation lines are calculated with the same approach but using two times the value of the average true range. Most of the time XBTUSD stays inside the dotted deviation lines but during period of high volatility it moves towards the solid deviation lines as happened in the last Top of June at $780.
With the bitfinex flash crash XBTUSD tested the first lower deviation line at $475 although on some exchanges the bottom touched $460. I don’t think is over yet, there might be a secondary reaction that can last all this month and maybe part of September with a test of the lower deviation line, this price level is near $400 as indicated in the chart.
The color of the mid-channel line represents the strength of the trend, red if bearish, white for neutral and green if bullish, at the moment the main trend is bullish and it’ll not change if XBTUSD doesn’t move below $400 for a prolonged period of time. I’m not going to liquidate my position as soon XBTUSD stays inside this long term bullish price channel.
As usual this article is available also at steemit.
XBT / USD weekly range $605-$ 660 | ALMA daily moving average is bearish and the main resistance is the VWAP at about $ 660, first support at $605.
XBTUSD broke previous week support and is now in a weak position under $ 660 US dollars. The resistance zone is $ 660-710, I think that XBTUSD will remain below $ 660 this week with a second resistance at about $ 710. The volatility finally increased with a drop in the last weekend.
The weekly forecast remains bearish, I think we will continue to see the bitcoin below the VWAP at $ 660.
The only positive note is the RSI oscillator that entered in oversold territory after a while and could allow a bitcoin rebound in the next few days, rebound which should end at the VWAP ($ 660).
XBT / USD weekly range $ 640- $ 710 | ALMA daily moving average is slightly bearish and the main support is the VWAP at about $ 640. XBTUSD remains in bullish position always above the VWAP since June 24, last week it tested $640 and reacted from there but generally speaking we are in a flat congestion between 630 and 680 dollars, for short-term traders i recommend to trade this price range accordingly (between the two extreme of 570 and 780 US dollars).
The resistance zone is $ 710-780, I think that XBTUSD will remain above $ 640 again this week with a first resistance at around $ 680. The volatility continues to be very low and this will have to be solved sooner or later with a breakout above or below the price range defined by the deviation of the VWAP lines indicated in the graph. The weekly forecast remains unchanged, I think we will continue to see the bitcoin confined in this price range, between 640 and 710 US dollars.
The RSI oscillator remains in a neutral position around 50 although is slowly orienting for an upward movement.
XBT / USD weekly range $ 635- $ 710 | ALMA daily moving average rose upward and the main support is the VWAP at about $ 635. XBTUSD resists above the VWAP for almost a month. The resistance price zone is $ 710-800, I think that XBTUSD will remain above $ 635 also this week with a first support at around $ 670, which corresponds to the ALMA moving average I use. It remains to be seen if market participants will manage to push the bitcoin price over the resistance at $ 710, the volatility after a period of contraction increased again and it did it by pushing up prices rather than downward, a positive note that leaves some hope for a break above $ 710.
The RSI oscillator remains in neutral position around 50, yet there seems to be a trend strong enough to move above $ 710, at least this week.
XBT/USD range till sunday $625-$740 | daily moving average is bulllish but slowing down and main support is at VWAP near $625 , i expect less volatility these days while the halving is coming next saturday. Eventually sunday after the halving the market might spike up to the resistance price zone 740-800 usd.
RSI oscillator average is near oversold territory and reversing to the upside, i don’t expect this market to move below $620.
XBT/USD weekly range.forecast $610-$735 | daily moving average is bearish and main support is at VWAP near $610. XBTUSD is resisting above the VWAP after a quick test below the support i mentioned in the previous update around $585, support broken but quickly regained.
Resistance price zone is $735-860, i think that XBTUSD should remain above $610 but if it starts to spend too much time below it then i think that a new low is ahead in the support price zone $485-$610 with the RSI oscillator that which will probably become oversold by then.
The updated chart shows how the VWAP dynamic support (calculated with two months of data) coincides with an old resistance now turned support. I think this will be a key support to be observed in the coming days and will tell us if the bullish move has finished or not.
Because of high volatility the support area is big and XBTUSD is right in the middle, RSI is giving a sell signal this doesn’t mean a drop instead XBTUSD might go lateral for few weeks before resuming the uptrend. Any weakness below $580 would be interpreted as a definitive end of the current big upswing.
XBT/USD weekly range.forecast $725-$870 | daily moving average is bulllish and main support is at VWAP near $580. XBTUSD continues to stay all the time above the first positive deviation line of the VWAP, a bullish behaviour.
In case of a strong price correction i’m looking at the $580 support as an interesting buying zone where to further increase my long-term position; position with a size of 3 units (150 btc) at an average price of $549.
XBT/USD range till sunday $650-$770 | daily moving average is bulllish and main support is at VWAP near $540 but as i said earlier this week when the market is strong usually the first positive deviation line is very good as support, now at $650.
The odds now are for a retracement, i suggest to observe market behaviour around the alma moving average and first vwap dev.line both at around 650 dollars.
XBT/USD weekly range.forecast $610-$800 | daily moving average is firmly bulllish and main support is at VWAP near $520 although when the market is strong usually the first positive deviation line act as main support; now at $615.
In my previous weekly range update i was thinking that XBTUSD was going to add another 50$-60$ in the current up-cycle and it happened. Right now i’m observing market behaviour around the static resistance of $680, apparently XBTUSD is going to break this resistance and skip the scenario of a substantial price correction.
Aniway in case of a strong price correction i’m looking at the $520 support as an interesting buying zone where to buy the dip.
Bitcoin Trading Ideas, Analysis 