Tag: breakout

Weekly Range Update

On By CryptoAdvisorIn Short Term Trading, weekly range update
XBTUSD dailychart
XBTUSD dailychart

XBT / USD weekly price range is 2400$-2880$ | The XBTUSD cross resists over 2400$ support but as I said last week there is always a risk that it breaks down towards the 2 months VWAP roughly at $1950.

With the ALMA daily moving average pushing bitcoin down and its effort to stay above 2400$ there is some sort of compression also visible in the chart as a symmetric triangle (descending tops and ascending bottoms), as I have said several times in the past  this pattern usually forms during a trend as a continuation pattern thus it should end with an upside breakout.

To conclude, the average RSI oscillator is in neutral zone near 50 and the RSI itself has stopped falling without ever entering the oversold area below 30.

In case of a catastrophic event the support area is 1150$-1450$.

Follow me also on Twitter where I started tweeting charts about bitcoin and some altcoins too using the TradingView.com platform
ITA Version Here

Weekly Range Update: stronger then expected

On By CryptoAdvisorIn Short Term Trading, weekly range update3 Comments
xbtusd daily chart
xbtusd daily chart

XBT / USD weekly price range is 935$-1095$ |Last week the cross XBTUSD has been stronger than expected so for this week the resistance is raised to 1100$, the support remains the VWAP at 935$.
The ALMA average has turned upward with the break of the resistance at 1015$ while the oscillator RSI has given a sell signal last week that has been ignored by the market confirming the strength of the bitcoin-dollar cross. The RSI has however pulled away from the overbought zone but remained above the mid-point of 50, thus remaining in bullish territory.

In short, the market is strong and has ignored my bearish worries of seven days ago; regarding my long-term position opened since 2014 I’ll continue to maintain it until I see some serious bearish indications  on the weekly and monthly chart. I remind everyone that the average carrying price of my position is around 570$ (three units opened at 681$ , 615$ and 417$ ).

In cases of extreme fall the support area is updated to 650-760 US dollars.

ITA version here.

Volatility is back and in the right direction

On By CryptoAdvisorIn Long Term Trading2 Comments

XBTUSD touched my weekly resistance at around $480, i think this resistance is temporary and considering the huge amount of volatility increase there are chance to see higher prices ahead. It’s time to switch to a weekly chart to better understand where is the first decent resistance .

chart-xbtusd-weekly

Above you can see a weekly chart of XBTUSD using an average of 5 exchanges. I plotted the bollinger bands and highlighted 3 breakout bars on point 1,3,4.

XBTUSD did a first breakout bar above the upper bollinger band on mid July 2015 (point 1 on the chart) but immediately turned back inside the bar, typical bearish pattern. At this point a bearish reaction started and ended at the lower bollinger band (point 2 on the chart) .
From here the true movement started with a clean breakout bar (Nov. 2015 point 3 on the chart).

Now we are seeing the same breakout bar (point 4 on the chart) but i can’t say yet if it is a legit or a fake one. Judging from what happened since Jan of this year with XBTUSD doing a long sequence of higher lows i’m tempted to say that this market is strong and probably it will break above 500 dollars; the next 1-2 weeks are crucial to see if this breakout is valid or not.

In january i was telling you that a good resistance for the whole year was $760 and it is still valid, there is 1% possibility to move above $760, 5% to go above $630 and 30% to pass $550. In case of a strong move above $500 the possible targets are these.