XBT/USD range till sunday $650-$770 | daily moving average is bulllish and main support is at VWAP near $540 but as i said earlier this week when the market is strong usually the first positive deviation line is very good as support, now at $650.
The odds now are for a retracement, i suggest to observe market behaviour around the alma moving average and first vwap dev.line both at around 650 dollars.
XBT/USD weekly range.forecast $610-$800 | daily moving average is firmly bulllish and main support is at VWAP near $520 although when the market is strong usually the first positive deviation line act as main support; now at $615.
In my previous weekly range update i was thinking that XBTUSD was going to add another 50$-60$ in the current up-cycle and it happened. Right now i’m observing market behaviour around the static resistance of $680, apparently XBTUSD is going to break this resistance and skip the scenario of a substantial price correction.
Aniway in case of a strong price correction i’m looking at the $520 support as an interesting buying zone where to buy the dip.
This is a simple monthly chart since Jan.2012, important facts are:
As i explained in past updates the midpoint or 50% it is one of the strongest and most important resistance/support level. The main trend is obviously up (at least so far) because the low around point 2 in the chart is above point 1 thus is legit to expect a new all time high if this market can break above the $680 static resistance.
Furthermore the fact that the two accumulation zones highlighted in the chart never overlap tell us that the underline long term trend is very strong and because of this i expect a new all time high in case of a strong breakout above $680.
This is a template i use for long term analysis with metatrader 4 platform, first i compute a price regression with 12 or 24 bars/months with a monthly chart then i compute supports and resistances. Dotted lines represents supports/resistances using the recent volatility of XBTUSD, non-dotted lines are levels computed using twice the value of recent bitcoin volatility.
We are exactly at the resistance and this is very interesting because in 1-2 months we will see if bitcoin long term trend is still up or not.
I have taken in account the log-normal distribution of price otherwise i’d have had very bad results in computing the levels, usually it is not required but when prices movements are so high you have to. What does it mean? It’s simple, before doing any calculation first compute the natural log of the price, do your stuff and last reexponentiate the data to have back the price chart with a linear scale.
This is why i do not recommend to use standard bollinger bands with bitcoin on a long term chart, you would have bad results, sometimes with the lower bollinger band going negative! clearly unrealistic.
XBT/USD weekly range.forecast at $425-$460 | daily moving average is bearish. Resistance is at VWAP near $445. Volatility increased but i think that we are seeing a bear trap, i expect an upmove that will carry XBTUSD just above the VWAP, RSI is low and it hadn’t been in oversold territory for a while this should increase the probability to see a rebounce from here. Strong resistance is always at around $480.
Generally speaking i think that there are no reasons to see the recent drop as a dump, in my opinion bitcoin fundamentals are looking strong and there is a lot to be bullish about this summer with segwit coming and halving.
Italian version of the update here
This is an attempt to forecast where the next big movement will end of this altcoin, an altcoin that recently is getting lot of unjustified attention from the bitcoin community. I don’t know if people is bored of bitcoin and is trying to pursuit a “get rich quick scheme” pumping their bitcoins in this altcoin, aniway it is not the purpose of this article to prove it or not.
Here there is the weekly chart with logscale for the price axis.I highlighted the first big up movement and the subsequent price drop, a perfect 62% fibonacci retracement down from the top to 0.015 btc/unit. Assuming that the current bullish movement will be of the same size of the previous one using a logarithmic scale the target should be at 0.135 Btc/Unit. There would be price retracements for sure before reaching such an optimistic target therefore a more likely long term top could be the point half way between our initial target and the bottom used as a starting point for our forecast. As indicated in the chart this potential resistance level is around 0.047 Btc/unit. IMO it would be a decent point where to open a short position because it is above the previous high of 0.035 Btc/unit and in a strong uptrend i’d prefer to avoid to open a short position from a lower high. In any case it is better to confirm the trade with a bearish signal with an oscillator of your choice.
XBT/USD weekly range.forecast $430-$450 | daily moving average is slightly bearish and strong support is at $430 near the short term VWAP. XBTUSD has broken to the upside from the previous congestion range ($400-$430) although now it is a bit weak and could probably test the VWAP at $430. For today support is at $445.
XBT/USD weekly range.forecast $440-$480 | daily moving average is bullish and strong support is at $420. $480 is in sight and XBTUSD has broken to the upside from the previous congestion range ($400-$430). For the very short term support is at $450.
Bitcoin Trading Ideas, Analysis 