Month: September 2016

Weekly Range Update

On By CryptoAdvisorIn Short Term Trading
eng
Daily Chart XBTUSD

XBT / USD weekly range $595 – $630 | ALMA daily moving average is flat and the main resistance is the second price deviation line above the VWAP @$630 while the support is always the VWAP @$560, similar price range of the last week.

I think that XBTUSD should remain below $ 630 also this week but a rise above this resistance is close for the same reason i told you in the previous update, the weekly ALMA moving average is slowly turning upward. For those wishing to go short I advise to wait at least $ 660 for this week, more probably next week, before trying a short sell. In any case  i do not recommend to go short for prolonged period of times because the underlying trend is still up.

The RSI oscillator has moved to oversold territory and failed to stay above the threshold of 50 that usually provides support. The average of the oscillator apparently is doing a bottom with the RSI itself that already crossed the thresold of 30 giving a bullish signal.

In the event of a sharp fall, as said many times is always very valuable the support around $420.

Italian version here at Bitchanger.com

Weekly Range Update

On By CryptoAdvisorIn weekly range update

engXBT / USD weekly range $570 – $630 | ALMA daily moving average is flat and the main resistance is the second price deviation line above the VWAP @$630 while the support is always the VWAP @$570. For this week i reduced the volatility setting of the sierrachart vwap indicator because the spread between the lines was too high after the bitcoin collapse of August, this adjustment was necessary and now as you can see the new setting better identifies supports and resistances. (For who uses this indicator with Sierrachart trading platform i adjusted the multiplier from 1-2-3-4 to 0,66-1,33-2-2,66)

I think that XBTUSD should remain below $ 630 also this week but a rise above this resistance is close, why? Because the ALMA average on the weekly chart appears to have turned upside and the breakout above $630 would be the confirmation of this reversal. For those wishing to go short I advise to wait at least $ 660 for this week before trying a short sell.

The RSI oscillator has reversed to the downside BUT since we are in a bullish move the RSI threshold of 50 provides support. An important point of the RSI indicator is the midline at 50 because it acts as support or resistance. Around this level there are many fake-outs, sometimes the RSI will fall just below 50 causing sell stops then suddenly the price just rebound. Likewise if crossing above 50, shorts will be covered only to see a resumed downward move. You must pay attention when the RSI is near this midline.

In the event of a sharp fall, as said many times is always very valuable the support around $420.

Italian version here at Bitchanger.com

Weekly Range Update

On By CryptoAdvisorIn Short Term Trading, weekly range update1 Comment
eng
Daily Chart XBTUSD @Bitstamp

XBT/USD weekly range $ 580-$ 630 | ALMA daily moving average is going flat after many days of good advance and the main resistance is now the first positive deviation line of the VWAP at around $ 630.

I think the cross XBTUSD will remain below $ 630 this week with a second resistance at about $ 680. The weekly ALMA moving average is apparently turning up but i don’t expect a break above $630 because also of an high reading of the RSI oscillator that is in overbought territory above the 70 threshold value..

I said in many previous updates that in case of a volatility spike due to another price crash the deal is to buy slightly above $420.

Italian version here at bitchanger.com

Long Term Update: Weekly View

On By CryptoAdvisorIn Long Term Trading1 Comment
eng
XBTUSD Weekly chart with price regression channel

This is a weekly chart since the bottom of March, 2015; the underlying weekly tendency is still up since then.
Inside this long term up channel there are secondary tendencies or cycles clearly visibile and highlighted by the alma moving average.

Last up cycle ended on the top just outside the high volatility zone in June 2016. After 3 months we are still in a secondary  down cycle inside a big up cycle. As i’ve told you in previous updates the maximum extension of this down cycle is at $420 as indicated in the above chart, i doubt we will see weakness below this important level.

At the moment the price is exactly at the middle point of the price regression channel and it’s very hard to say which direction it’ll take, in any case if there will be a new crash down to $420 i’ll further increase my long term position; at the same time if XBTUSD start to stay consistently below $420 i’ve to conclude that the long term up cycle is over and a bear market is ahead.

As i’ve said many times in the past years i don’t believe in a prolonged bear market because bitcoin and its network are healthy and just at the beginning of their life. Key is patience.