This is a daily chart of 4 main exchanges (bitfinex, bitstamp, btce and btc china data averaged down), the blue tick line is the ALMA moving average. As you can see in the last 2 days the average turned bearish again, this doesn’t mean that XBT/USD will fall for sure, it might be a false signal but considering that also the weekly ALMA turned again bearish failing to confirm the bullish reversal of last week the obvious conclusion is that this market is losing a bit of strength and the risk of a downswing is around the corner. I think that as long as it stays above 360$-365$ is fine despite a negative outlook by those averages but a break to 350$ or lower would confirm the bearishness in the currency pair.