As i said recently, a congestion occurs when four consecutive bars open or close within the range of a “measuring bar”. A “measuring bar” becomes such when its price range contains the opens or closes of at least three of four subsequent price bars,  I consider the daily bar of last 27 April the measuring bar with the range from $430 to $460.

We can say that it is a congestion because we have been inside the measuring bar for 18 daily bars, more then 20 bars it is a Trading Range with a breakout usually occurring before the thirtieth bar.

I expect to see a breakout in the next two weeks also because of what i wrote about the length of the correction started in December ’13; I think that this congestion will not last more then 30 days in a volatile market like this. Top of the congestion range is also the one year VWAP now at $460.

If XBT/USD will break below the congestion range, i still think that the $370-$390 price zone will provide some support.